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Editorial: Is a European Super State at hand due to war in Ukraine?
An unprecedented wave of solidarity is bringing governments and people together in a form not seen on the continent for many decades.
A more united Europe
For years I have spoken at conferences to share my non-consensus forecast that I see an unprecedented convergence of crises forcing European nations to work together .. and eventually the rise of a European Federation. In 2018 I called it the coming European Super State.
I have been scoffed at for saying this during the Euro debt & Greece crisis, while most experts talked about the breakdown of the EU and the end of the Integration Process. I’ve foreseen in my analysis a powerful crisis overlap in this decade overwhelming the current EU, but in turn increasing the political will to build a new structure. This may also flank President Macron’s vision of a European Army. A lack of military deterrent is definitely one of the reasons Europe failed Ukrainians. A terrible crisis may does bring new life to the integration process. This was not a wish, but the outcome of pure analysis.
I don’t mind experts & investors scoffing at my analysis, they did the same when I told them the supply chain will collapse, Free Trade with dictatorships (big error) will erode our security and bring wars back to Europe.
Free Trade with autocratic hegemonic states has been one the gravest strategic errors by the West since WW2. In fact this massive Free Trade has rewarded repressive regimes and made them even more repressive. It is my humble view that restricting Free Trade to nations that share our values (democracy and free market economy) will in the long run reduce the risk of repressive regimes undermining democracy and ruling the world.
It is my hope that we can start making better strategic assessments. We cannot single out our leaders, experts & investors for the blame, if we consume the exports of repressive regimes that threaten their neighbours. In that sense the free world failed Hong Kong and Ukraine long ago.
If we consume & trade along our presumed values and build a strong military, dictatorships will not blossom. There could be a more manageable security balance between East and West, and in my humble view this value-driven (instead of profit-driven) approach would benefit Russia & China as well. There has to be an incentive for those nations to want to adapt. If you give everything away, why should they change and give up absolute power? The recent history of China is a good example for that. To attract Western factories and investments Beijing pretended to open up tentatively. As soon as the critical mass was achieved, and the West became trapped (around 2014), Beijing became even more repressive than before.
Some personal remarks
I am normally used to run objective & unemotional research about economic & geopolitical issues. I normally don’t mix my personal views with my analysis. But in the face of the current tragedy I am adding here “personal remarks”.
It touches my heart to see the suffering of civilians, the outpouring of compassion and solidarity towards the refugees. Something we have not seen on our continent probably since the massive displacements of refugees at the end of WW2.
My appeal: No matter how we may think about the war in Ukraine ( like who started the problem etc.), this human tragedy can bring us together in our desire to help the needy.
I am grateful for the many charity institutions that have quickly begun to work to provide assistance. There are now a large number of organisations we can donate to in order to play our part. We can therefore not only pray for the affected people, we can donate and be part of the answer.
Let’s pray for peace and help.
At Geopolitical Research we help decision makers gain insight into what is underestimated by consensus. Shedding light on these overlooked areas helps decision makers better understand other stakeholders and even so-called enemies. We try to help reduce the risks of costly miscalculations. This also helps people discern the times we are living in.
Editorial: EU to build own military & financial system ex USA
By Christian Takushi MA UZH Macro Economist – 28 Aug 2018 (delayed public release)
French President Macron has stated this week that Europe needs to build her own financial and security framework in order to be independent from the USA. He confirmed the repeated calls by German Chancellor Merkel for Europe to detach from the USA. Paris, Berlin and Brussels are now in agreement. Many are cheering that the EU is standing up to America.
The EU is on confrontation course with the USA, and the Anglo-Saxon world in a sense. This is something we have been warning of for years. Many would like to blame this on US President Trump alone – a convenient, but somewhat misleading narrative. The USA and Europe have been on collision course for a long time. But despite the increasingly conflicting interests, political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic for over a decade continued to stress “the shared values” in public instead.
This clash was coming. Europe has been embracing China and Iran … [Read more]
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Since 2016 our newsletter is consistently ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide
“After 45 years of a liberal Policy Mix, a multi-year process of Normalization in Global Politics and Economics started in 2015. Fears of extreme isolation and protectionism by the USA and UK will prove overdone. We see rather a temporary correction towards the historical mean. Nevertheless, this correction will eventually fail to stop the secular trend of liberal globalisation and unprecedented power concentration – Free markets and personal freedoms will also fade away” By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 3 Dec 2016.
Many observers and analysts err in their view of the new US Supreme Court. Based on our independent analysis, we assess that the Supreme Court is less conservative than widely believed. On paper it is conservative, but the facto rather “centrist” or “centrist-conservative leaning” depending on the issues at stake.
LATAM – In China’s grip: Brazil, Peru and Chile
In the vacuum of US leadership in Latin America, Russia and especially China are growing their influence (an excerpt of our research from Jan 2016 was viewed over 1 million times). The struggle between the super powers has shifted to Latin America. After consolidating her influence over Argentina, Venezuela and Bolivia, Beijing is now launching a massive concerted effort to bring the most capitalistic resource-rich economies (Chile, Peru etc.) under her influence. Latest update only available to policy makers.
Eastern Europe: Turkey – Romania – Poland
For almost ten years Takushi is predicting the inexorable Geopolitical rise of Turkey and the potential rise of Romania & Poland as European powers. While Turkey is rising as a result of its excellent strategic geopolitical advisers and Europe’s lack of strategic foresight, Romania could benefit greatly from strategic energy & military shifts. Takushi sees Bucharest lacking global strategic-geopolitical expertise though. In that sense, Warsaw is one step ahead. Nations will rise and fall based on their ability to capitalize on global strategic-geopolitical shifts. (Latest update only available for policy makers)
After years of researching Geopolitics and Macroeconomics, Takushi found that broadening Macro Research to include geopolitical factors improved the quality of predictions. He thanks the many professionals and experts that are contributing to advance this research.
This new approach to Geopolitical Analysis is free of conspiracy theories, ideology and judgement: All nations pursue their national interests with all means at their disposal, just as corporations do. This is, in a way, an economist’s approach to political analysis. Applied at a global scale and aggregate levels, the Western linear-logical way of thinking is complemented by the Oriental circular worldview to improve results.
- 10 June 2016 IMD Lausanne, Executive MBA Program, The Future of the European Union
- 13 Jun 2017 CFA Society Switzerland in Lausanne – CE approved seminary (The coming Middle East Crisis)
- 7 Mar 2018 The European Super State & Middle East War – Swiss Investment Conference, Park Hyatt Zurich
- 25 Oct 2018 Geopolitical Trends in Asia. Headquarters of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – Basel
- 15 Nov 2018 Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities in Eastern Europe – Zurich University for Applied Sciences’ investor conference
- 24 Jan 2020 IMD Alumni Geopolitical Outlook: World Economy is vulnerable to Multiple Risks
- 5 Nov 2020 Online Seminar: US Elections 2020, why in 2020 the Senate matters more
- 18-19 Mar 2022 Malaga Business Conference: Global Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Trends
- 12-14 May 2022 UBP Investment Conference: Keynote Speech, Global Geopolitical Outlook
GROM – Global Risk Overlap Model
Our GLOBAL RISK OVERLAP MODEL (GROM) is relevant for governments, multinational firms and investors.
By 2020 our model reached 10, thus predicting that all conditions were present for a significant war. This quantitative signal reinforced our analysis-based forecast that war was coming to the European continent. It did. We have warned since 2010 of the excessive dependence of Europe on autocratic regimes for energy and supplies – to no avail. Political and business leaders said our forecasts were too negative.
Our Global Risk Barometer shows that conditions are present for a major crisis. This model was developed to gauge the level of vulnerability of the world economy to systemic external risks, but not to predict a trigger or timing of a crisis. Europe is particularly vulnerable to most crisis scenarios.
We expect the Global Risk level to remain elevated throughout the (2nd) Transition Period 2017-2024. In conjunction with our LEV-AL Model this suggests that businesses, governments and ministries should prepare contingency plans for major disruptions of operations and supply chains.
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Geopolitical Updates and Guest Articles are delayed and adapted
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