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Editorial: Is a European Super State closer at hand due to the war in Ukraine?
A wave of solidarity is bringing governments and people together in a form not seen on the continent for many decades – This will not last, but is a window Western leaders are likely to seize. Serious crises are what EU leaders need to advance the European Integration Process to a new level.
A more united Europe
For years I have spoken at conferences to share my non-consensus forecast that I see an unprecedented convergence of crises forcing European nations to work together .. and eventually the rise of a European Federation. In 2018 I called it the coming European Super State.
I was scoffed at for saying this during the Euro debt & Greece crisis, while most experts talked about the breakdown of the EU and the end of the Integration Process. Our proprietary analysis has been pointing for years to a powerful crisis overlap in this decade .. overwhelming the current EU, but in turn increasing the political will to build a new structure. This may also flank President Macron’s vision of a European Army. A lack of military deterrent is definitely one of the reasons Europe failed Ukraine. A terrible crisis may does bring new life to the integration process. We have no political agenda, thus .. all of this was the outcome of pure analysis based on available evidence, data and history.
Those who follow our independent research for more than a decade know I don’t mind experts & investors scoffing at my analysis. They did so when I told them the supply chain will collapse, Free Trade with dictatorships (a big error) will erode our security and bring wars back to Europe.
Free Trade with autocratic hegemonic states has been one the gravest strategic errors by the West since WW2. In fact this massive Free Trade has rewarded repressive regimes and made them even more repressive. Our political leaders and university professors told us that as we do more trade with dictatorships they will open up to democracy. I have opposed this flawed view since my years as graduate student at the economics faculty.
It is still my humble view that restricting Free Trade to nations that share our values (democracy and free market economy) will in the long run reduce the risk of repressive regimes undermining democracy and ruling the world.
It is my hope that we can start making better decisions based on realistic strategic assessments. We cannot single out our leaders, experts & investors for the blame, if we, the voters, consume the exports of repressive regimes that threaten their neighbours. In that sense the free world failed Hong Kong and Ukraine long ago. Ultimately it failed itself. It is sobering: Simply to keep up excessive pretentious consumption and to make large corporations richer & bigger .. the West sold its soul, values, fiscal-monetary discipline and its future. Not only have these gigantic oligopolies decimated free competition (the very essence of capitalism), they now de facto steer the political process in Washington, Strassburg and Brussels.
If we consume & trade along our presumed values and build a strong military, dictatorships will not blossom. There could be a more manageable security balance between East and West, and in my humble view this value-driven (instead of profit-driven) approach would benefit Russia & China as well. There has to be an incentive for those nations to want to adapt. If you give everything away, why should they change and give up absolute power? The recent history of China is a good example for that. To attract Western factories and investments Beijing pretended to open up tentatively. As soon as the critical mass was achieved, and the West became trapped (around 2014), Beijing became even more repressive than before. Russia moved next on Crimea. We can’t simply say China and Russia are threatening the West. We have made the strategic mistakes and enabled the hardliners to increase their power.
Let’s pray for peace and let us help where we can.
At Geopolitical Research we help decision makers gain insight into what is underestimated by consensus. We have a balanced approach to analysis that takes into account Western and Oriental cultures and worldviews. Shedding light on consensus-overlooked areas helps decision makers better understand other stakeholders and even so-called enemies. We try to help reduce the risks of costly miscalculations. This also helps people discern the times we are living in.
Editorial: EU to build own military & financial system ex USA
By Christian Takushi MA UZH Macro Economist – 28 Aug 2018 (delayed public release)
French President Macron has stated this week that Europe needs to build her own financial and security framework in order to be independent from the USA. He confirmed the repeated calls by German Chancellor Merkel for Europe to detach from the USA. Paris, Berlin and Brussels are now in agreement. Many are cheering that the EU is standing up to America.
The EU is on confrontation course with the USA, and the Anglo-Saxon world in a sense. This is something we have been warning of for years. Many would like to blame this on US President Trump alone – a convenient, but somewhat misleading narrative. The USA and Europe have been on collision course for a long time. But despite the increasingly conflicting interests, political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic for over a decade continued to stress “the shared values” in public instead.
This clash was coming. Europe has been embracing China and Iran … [Read more]
Since 2016 our newsletter is consistently ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide
“After 45 years of a liberal Policy Mix, a multi-year process of Normalisation in Global Politics and Economics started in 2015. Fears of extreme isolation and protectionism by the USA and UK will prove overdone. We see rather a temporary correction towards the historical mean. This correction is unlikely to stop the secular trend of liberal globalisation and power concentration – The West is embracing a state-run economy model” By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 3 Dec 2016.
Many observers and analysts err in their view of the new US Supreme Court. Based on our independent analysis, we assess that the Supreme Court is less conservative than widely believed. On paper it is conservative, but the facto rather “centrist – conservative leaning” – often depending on the issues at stake.
LATAM – In China’s grip: Brazil, Peru and Chile
In the vacuum of US leadership in Latin America, Russia and especially China are growing their influence. The struggle between the super powers has shifted to Latin America. After consolidating her influence over Argentina, Venezuela and Bolivia, Beijing is now launching a concerted effort to bring the most capitalistic resource-rich economies (Chile, Peru etc.) under her influence. (Latest update only available to policy makers).
Eastern Europe: Turkey – Romania – Poland
Since 2010 years we are predicting the inexorable Geopolitical rise of Turkey and the potential rise of Romania & Poland as European powers. While Turkey is rising thanks to Europe’s lack of strategic foresight, Romania could benefit greatly from strategic energy & military shifts. Takushi sees Bucharest lacking global strategic-geopolitical expertise though. In that sense, Warsaw is one step ahead. Nations will rise and fall based on their ability to capitalise on global strategic-geopolitical shifts. (Latest update only available for policy makers).
After years of researching Geopolitics and Macroeconomics, Takushi found that broadening Macro Research to include geopolitical factors improved the quality of the analysis. He thanks the many professionals and experts that are contributing to advance this research.
This new approach to Geopolitical Analysis is free of conspiracy theories, ideology and judgement: All nations pursue their national interests with all means at their disposal, just as corporations do. This is, in a way, an economist’s approach to political analysis. Applied at a global scale and aggregate levels, the Western linear-logical way of thinking is complemented by the Oriental circular worldview to improve results.
- 10 June 2016 IMD Lausanne, Executive MBA Program, The Future of the European Union
- 13 Jun 2017 CFA Society Switzerland in Lausanne – CE approved seminary (The coming Middle East Crisis)
- 7 Mar 2018 The European Super State & Middle East War – Swiss Investment Conference, Park Hyatt Zurich
- 25 Oct 2018 Geopolitical Trends in Asia. Headquarters of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – Basel
- 15 Nov 2018 Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities in Eastern Europe – Zurich University for Applied Sciences’ investor conference
- 24 Jan 2020 IMD Alumni Geopolitical Outlook: World Economy is vulnerable to Multiple Risks
- 18-19 Mar 2022 Malaga Business Conference: Global Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Trends
- 12-14 May 2022 UBP Investment Conference: Keynote Speech, Global Geopolitical Outlook
RESEARCH MADE IN SWITZERLAND
Our GLOBAL RISK OVERLAP MODEL (GROM) is relevant for governments, multinational firms and investors.
By 2020 our model indicated that all conditions were present for a significant war. Although timing cannot be predicted by this model, this signal reinforced our analysis-based forecast that war was coming to the European continent. We have warned political and business leaders since 2010 of the excessive dependence of Europe on autocratic regimes for energy and supplies.
We expect the Global Risk level to remain elevated throughout the (2nd) Transition Period 2017-2024. Highest convergence of frictions expected for 2024. In conjunction with our LEV-AL Model this suggests that businesses, governments and ministries should prepare contingency plans for major disruptions of operations and supply chains.
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(All media prior to 2016 are from Takushi’s personal archives and are here only for reference)
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