Predictions & Principles

Why professional predictions are rare

Most analysts prefer to comment current events at length: i.e. there is an oversupply in commentary and a shortage of informed predictions. Many are afraid of making predictions for fear of being wrong, failing to see that the value of a prediction is in its rationale.

The value is in the rationale

The rationale and analysis are normally of greater value than the exact prediction per se. After all, empirically, most predictions are destined to fail. On the other hand, it is not difficult to make daring predictions to benefit from extreme events: i.e. spreading fear is easier than giving sound assurance.

Therefore most people are looking to economists to provide a clear predictive outlook with a balanced rationale that can be updated as the scenario unfolds. This is what we endeavour to offer.

Safety in principles

In our geopolitical macroeconomic analysis we adhere to the following solid principles:

• We avoid hatred or judgement
• We shed light on the facts and try to point to the truth
• We encourage nations to address ethical issues and dark chapters in their past. This is essential for healing of international relationships and for prosperity.
• We encourage repentance and forgiveness – this is the only true basis for reconciliation and lasting peace between nations, generations and people groups.

Disclosure: Yes, these are biblical principles.

Research & advisory network

Christian Takushi’s personal network includes individuals in the fields of diplomacy, economics, global business, engineering, law and religion. They provide valuable and diverse inputs, analysis and criticism. Takushi can also draw on the support of international leaders (with military & global business background) for global strategic advice and critical feedback.

Recommend next page: Methodology

Our approach of seeking wisdom rather than maximising knowledge, helped us predict the BREXIT and TRUMP shocks: