Predictions and Principles

Why professional predictions are rare

Most analysts prefer to comment current events at length: i.e. there is an oversupply in commentary and a shortage of informed predictions. Many are afraid of making predictions for fear of being wrong, failing to see that the value of a prediction is in its rationale.

The value is in the rationale (i.e. cohesion of analytical assumptions)

The rationale and analysis are normally of greater value than the exact prediction per se. After all, empirically, most predictions are destined to fail. On the other hand, it is not difficult to make daring predictions to benefit from extreme events: i.e. spreading fear is easier than giving sound assurance.

Many people are looking to economists to provide a clear predictive outlook with a balanced rationale that can be updated as events unfold. This is what we endeavour to offer.

Analysis is free of conspiracy theories, ideology and judgement:

Safety in principles

In our geopolitical macroeconomic analysis we adhere to the following solid principles:

  • We focus on understanding the behaviour of nations rather than passing judgement 
  • We rely on independent balanced analysis rather than on informants and consensus 
  • We are mindful of ideological spins when handling data and news – Preselected facts may be correct, but not point to the truth or the big picture
  • We endeavour to be a positive and constructive agent in the political process – this implies that we address governments with utmost respect 
  • We don’t mix critical analysis to correct policy mistakes with popular efforts to undermine the work of policy makers
  • Our language is respectful, gracious and as objective as possible 

Additionally when giving advice:

  • We encourage nations to address ethical issues and dark chapters in their past. This is essential for healing of international relationships and for their prosperity
  • When we encounter conflicts, we encourage repentance, forgiveness and reciprocity in trade – this is the best basis for reconciliation and lasting peace between nations, generations and people groups.

Disclosure: Yes, these are all biblical principles.

Research & advisory network

Christian Takushi’s personal network includes individuals in the fields of diplomacy, economics, banking, central banking, global business, engineering, law and religion. They provide valuable and diverse inputs, analysis and criticism. Takushi can also draw on the support of international leaders (with military & global business background) for global strategic advice and critical feedback.

Our approach of seeking wisdom rather than maximising knowledge, helped us predict the BREXIT and TRUMP shocks: 

Source: LinkedIn, comment posted on 9 November 2016
Source: LinkedIn, comment posted on 9 November 2016