A bold America rises
Geopolitical Research – Switzerland – 20 Jan 2025 (Delayed and truncated public release 15 Mar 2025).
Dear reader
We have waited for the 47th US President to be sworn in and the orderly handover to be completed as there were multiple risk scenarios to the transition process that are now out of the way.
A remarkable day
The transition of power may have looked smooth to many outsiders and commentators, but behind the scenes there were elevated tensions. President elect Trump barely left his Florida residence in recent weeks, because of the many threats. Despite the bitter rivalry and – what we deem – sabotage-efforts by Biden agencies against the 2nd Trump administration, President Trump and former President Biden handled the day with a measure of political correctness.
Overall it was a good day for American Democracy. President Trump felt visibly vindicated and he couldn’t help but to mention in his speech that the Democrats had weaponised the Justice system to try to put him in prison – He spoke with leading Democrats seating just a few feet away. He finished that section of his speech with “the weaponisation of the Justice system ends now” – which came across as a charge against the outgoing Biden administration. The air was also charged. because the President was still digesting the details of President Biden’s last minute pardons for members of his family and leading members of his administration that might be facing criminal investigations.
Something like this has never happened in US history. President Trump wanted to say more, but we know that his wife and J.D. Vance convinced him to leave out some other comments (read charges against the Biden-Harris administration) for another day.
After analysing the inaugural speech of the 47th President, we have distilled and structured his four key priorities as follows ..
Priority no 1 – Security
President Trump dedicated a good deal of his inauguration speech to protecting America and restoring security, law & order.
President Trump announced he will declare a National Emergency at the Southern Border. He will also invoke the Alien Enemies Act to declare war on foreign criminals. Washington will deport illegal immigrants, especially foreign criminals.
Priority no 2 – Economy, Energy & Foreign Revenue Office
President Trump criticised the massive rise in the Cost of Living and hinted at flooding energy markets to lower the price of oil & gas. To this end he will declare a National Energy Emergency. He will also start a External Revenue Office to shift the focus away from simply taxing US citizens to taxing foreign nations. Tariffs will be used aggressively and tactically to that end.
As an economist I can tell you that this will be challenging and highly complex, but it could be done and it could inflict tremendous damage to foreign nations – especially the European Union and its “allies”. Britain is seen as having joined forces with the EU to resist America. After Switzerland aligned itself with the EU just weeks before Trump’s 2nd Term some Swiss industries are under Trump cabinet advisers’ scrutiny.
America is decidedly turning away from the EV and other Green Policies. To lower the government costs and deficits a Department of Government Efficiency will try to emulate President Milei’s aggressive cuts.
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Personal comment
I humbly think that our European leaders underestimate the gravity of Europe’s predicament (a perfect storm) and the resolve of America. They think they know Trump and rely on Trump’s first term. I think they underestimate how ruthless America can be if challenged.
The most troubled and defenceless continent is defying the most formidable superpower. This week the CDU leader and likely next German Chancellor, Mr. Friedrich Merz, said something along this line “Let’s stand and not be afraid – we are more people than the Americans, if we unite we can overcome”. European thought leaders tell me “America is in decline and in trouble!”. It is as if the Germanic tribes were taking on the Roman Empire in 150 A.D. rather than 450 A.D. Prematurely.
Yes, America is in trouble and it is also being challenged. But this is exactly the reason why America is much more dangerous now to any foe of wavering ally than at any time since its rise to indisputable power during WW2. America is not down and out.
I wished our leaders in Berlin, Paris and Brussels would read the biography of General George Washington – how worried he was that the United States would not survive the war of independence, the precarious interim and the first 8 years as a young republic. America was often at peril – and bitter division engulfed the first administration already. Having experienced oppression, the Founding Fathers feared the overreach of central government, that is why they designed so many checks & balances – the division of federal government was by design. The citizens’ right to bear arms helped avert government oppression. Like the other Founding Fathers the first US President George Washington saw the divine Hand of God as having preserved the United States of America. That sense of divine purpose and providence is found on Capitol Hill, the Supreme Court and every small American town. Not just in the White House. This is part of America’s exceptionalism.
I think some realpolitik and introspection would help Europe better than defiance. We should humbly ask ourselves why US and European values are drifting apart – Could it be that our receding faith in God is keeping us from connecting with a majority of Americans and most of the world? We don’t need to agree with Americans, but we should at least try to understand or relate to what drives them. America, not Europe, leads the free world. Europe should have never dismantled its military. It has decided to detach from America and to defy Washington. But it will take at least 7-9 years to rebuild our militaries. Who will defend Europe in the meantime after it defied China, Russia and America?
It is Realpolitik.
Geopolitical Research Team – 20 Jan 2025
Disclaimer: No information or comment should be construed as investment advice.
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Research made in Switzerland
Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.
No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.
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