Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Trends

Global Macroeconomic Trends
  1. Rise of emerging economies slowed down by liquidity squeeze
  2. As intra-Asian trade weakens, Latin America and Middle East eye a potential revival. Mercosur may see a “breaking up”
  3. Fragility of paper-based Monetary System: Risks of Deflation, Price Stickiness and Hyper-Inflation are rising. So called Fat-Tail Risks rise, making World Economy more vulnerable
  4. Nationalism & military buildup lead to lower long term growth – boost to industrial production, but erodes trust
  5. Demographics – deteriorating worldwide and leading to lower GDP growth and Deflation
    – China’s Median Age approaching critical 37.
    – China, South Korea, Taiwan & Japan aging very fast
    – As labor forces implode, growth to slow further and deflation deepen. interest in geopolitical conflicts to boost national cohesion
    – Taiwan under pressure to merge with China and S.Korea to merge with N.Korea.
  6. Income inequality – Oligopolistic system replacing market economy
  7. Major social transformation: Urbanization, polarization, center of Christianity shifting to the East & South
  8. Resources’ constrains: energy, clean water, food, rare metals …
  9. Re-emergence of the USA in global competitiveness and military
  10. Rise of Sub-Saharan Africa
  11. Global Trade momentum in gradual shift to Indian Ocean
Global Geopolitical Trends
  1. Political polarization and less governable democracies (rise of state capitalism)
  2. Military build-up by emerging nations
  3. Reduced maritime & energy security – Arctic route a game changer
  4. Unresolved patched-up conflicts flare up in Asia
  5. Resurgent nationalism & anti-Semitism
– Religious persecution is on the rise
  6. Assertive foreign policies by emerging nations unchecked
  7. Rise/radicalization of Islam & Middle East destabilization
    – Emerging powers supplying conventional weapons
    – Rise of Turkey – Ottoman capture of Jerusalem 500th anniversary
    – US shifts military resources to the Pacific & homeland
  8. NATO’s encirclement of Russia
  9. Rise of revolutionary socialism (populism) in Latin America
  10. China achieves Nuclear 1st strike capability
  11. Superpowers converge in surveillance, tighter control & oligopolies

> Recommended next page: The Great Convergence