Geopolitical Research, Switzerland – 22 Dec 2024 (Delayed Truncated Release on 19 Jan 2025)
Dear friend
As the end of the year approaches it seems I could be writing a report every five days – so much is happening. The reason why I am not releasing as many reports as in November is this: Last month real events of strategic significance took place and our view deviated from consensus on them. This month much of what we are seeing is disruptive actions – most of it organised and concerted.
Our independent analysis of all the current assertive and disruptive actions so far leads us to the same conclusion: The political forces that lost the US elections in November 2024 are staging a concerted effort to disrupt and, if it were possible, to kind of sabotage the transition of power due in January 2025. The start of Trump 2.0 term should be a chaos.
This is a time to stay calm and focused and .. to know the signs of the times. In this month noise and deception is rampant. We don’t want to be part of it.
What is happening? The Political Process during one of the most complex transitions in 100 years.
It is no surprise to independent analysts – In fact high representatives of the EU, the Democratic party, WEF, UN and leading NGO’s stated over the past year that these US elections are an “all or nothing” battle for the survival of our Global Liberal Order. And what some of them added was equally significant: “everything is on the table to avert Trump from succeeding”, “whatever it takes”.
Remarkable convergence of events – The escalation in Ukraine, the collapse of Syria, the nightly drones over the US East coast, the breaking down of economic data just after the elections, controversy over the FED and sharply rising 10 Year Treasury Yields, the disarray in Taiwan, the talks of a new pandemic, the drill of strategic nuclear bombers, the rushing of the President and Vice President to the White House .. and so much more are either expression of nervousness or part of a concerted effort to disrupt the world and give President Trump a terrible start into his second administration.
Interestingly some of these events seem to be connected and their timely sequence raises questions about their randomness . We are monitoring some of these disruptions closely for security reasons that surely have not escaped Moscow nor Beijing . They have recently raised the alert level of their strategic armed forces. The world remains on the brink of a global confrontation and fiscal crises among Western powers.
Reason why the thousands of people that are preparing to leave Europe and those setting up a 2nd base for their families in the Southern hemisphere – despite Trump’s victory – are not unwise. Better late than never: Those with readied options can be more at ease. If Trump seizes power according to plan, the EU, UK, Canada and Mexico could go into a major crisis as they clash with America. The worldviews of America and its allies could not be further apart, which makes an external threat vital to keep America in NATO. Something the Trump Team is well aware of. European powers underestimate Washington and might be forced to take exceptional measures to stabilise their systems. Private citizens with net wealth and business owners are likely to be the most affected. If the EU and UK extend the war in Ukraine without the USA, the consequences could be even larger. We are closely monitoring the German elections , because their exact outcome could accelerate the Capital Market Union and special Wealth Taxes among other political measures in Europe.
In a nutshell, given the hardened stance of European leaders against Trump and Musk, America’s boom could be Europe’s demise in the coming two years.
Financial crisis and war: desired outcomes to derail Trump 2? One of the best ways for the enemies of Trump, Musk and RFK Jr to hurt this upcoming Trump 2 administration is to follow through in what they discussed over the past 14 months: organised resistance and an overlap of disruptive events. Looking at the current state of the world on the geopolitical, political, macroeconomic and financial fronts, the three events with the most devastating effect at the onset of Trump’s second term would be a
a) war escalation;
b) financial collapse;
c) fear-instilling unexpected phenomenon or event (watch the VIX Volatility Index)
Unfortunately it is not enough to say “they are just trying to disrupt or scare us, so I won’t pay attention”. Why? For two reasons.
First – We are de facto in a state of warfare with Russia and China. We have already embargoed our enemies and announced economic war on them – that is the pre-state of open hostilities. We did something similar to Japan before WW2 and Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.
Second – Our financial system is ..
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With all the is converging around the world and the Biden agencies have planted to disrupt Trump’s 2nd term, we could face a market implosion in 2025. But we also see the potential for the beginning of a powerful economic boom sparked by bold measures. Which one will dominate? Or will we see both?
Personal Comment on Christmas
Please – Kindly allow me to extend a personal message two days before Christmas. The weight of the fears burdening people this December calls for more than a season’s wish. If the bible offers no help at Christmas, when?
Not only normal people, even defence ministers and bank executives have shared with me their fears and concerns in recent weeks.
While reasons to worry abound, when you look at world events “through” the bible, you notice that everything is unfolding as God foretold through His prophets in the books of Daniel, Jeremiah, Matthew, Revelation etc. God knew the end from the beginning, so He is in control and we can trust Him.
In this Season I hope that you can find peace in the central figure of the Christmas story. While the sight of a baby in a manger is comforting, only the realisation, that this resurrected King is waiting to re-appear on earth, conveys a peace and hope that go beyond understanding. In God our future is secure. This is my unshakable source of hope .
Thanks for graciously bearing with me.
Our greetings and best wishes from our safe haven in the Swiss Alps.
Geopolitical Research Team – 22 Dec 2024 (Delayed Truncated Release on 19 Jan 2025)
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Disclaimer: No information or comment should be construed as investment advice.
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Research made in Switzerland
Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.
No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.
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