The US-Europe fallout nobody wanted to acknowledge
Geopolitical Research, Switzerland – 16 Feb 2025 (Delayed and truncated public release 15 May 2025).
Dear reader
As you can imagine we could comment almost daily on current events. But we don’t have the need nor the urge to share our perspective every time something important happens. We would be adding to the information flood and news saturation.
We could write long essays about what is unfolding before our eyes in Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. But this is not a time for long essays. The situation is so fluid especially in Europe, one could write an essay every two-three days to cover the same topic – getting nowhere.
Big Picture & Connecting dots
We need to know when to dig deeper and when to get away from our planet’s surface to reach high aggregate levels of interaction in order to see the Big Picture and connect important dots. This is a moment for the latter. There are dots and fronts we must connect
We will now enumerate an array of developments that we should to keep in mind in order to make sense of what is unfolding this year. We might otherwise be drawing the wrong conclusions
Gold has reached roughly USD 2’900. The intermediate price target is USD 5’000, but be cautious gold remains the no 1 enemy of an indebted paper-money printing state . It can suffer setbacks. I am glad for all those who have listened to us on gold and silver. But as you may remember, it is more important in which jurisdiction you hold your gold than how much gold you have. All of a sudden nations no longer trust other nations and want their gold back. Rightly so. We are expecting massive wealth taxes in the EU and G20 economies among other measures. Gold revaluation may be underway, but gold holders face multiple risks.
Be prudent and don’t underestimate National Security. We have never trusted the official figures released by central banks about how much gold they buy or hold. Years ago we also stopped relying on government data for GDP growth or inflation (CPI). In geopolitically troubled times major Western governments along other G20 governments cannot afford to tell us the truth.
Israel and Japan have seen the signs of the time and put aside their differences & pride to embrace America’s new reality. Japan especially has committed to shift key factories to America and to invest at least USD 1’000 Bn. While Germans are likely to choose a government with an anti-American stance, other nations are likely to vote in conservative or pragmatic administrations over the next 18 months. In Asia and LatAm key leaders don’t want to defy America.
Russia and China have ascertained that it makes more sense to strike a compromise with Washington in order to limit the damage of embargos and sanctions. A tense equilibrium between the three large military powers is on the table.
For more than ten years we are speaking at conferences about the fact that US and European interests & values are drifting apart – this started long before Mr. Trump ran for President in 2015.
Key officials in the Trump administration (including those that deeply distrust Moscow like Secretary Rubio) believe that instead of addressing this divergence in values and the growing distrust, European leaders drummed up the Transatlantic unity and looked for common threats to keep up the alliance going. Others like Mr. Musk have added their weight: Every government-paid entity tries to perpetuate its existence.
As a result many in Washington think it is not worthwhile to risk war with another nuclear power to defend an “estranged” Europe. This is something Vice President Vance allured to in Munich last week.
As we said in an interview in 2022 Europe’s dramatic economic and fiscal situation is irremediable (fiscal collapse).
Non-Western capitals increasingly view major European powers are in need of “converging crises” in order to reset the system monetarily & politically. They think this is the only way forward for the continent, but are keeping this off diplomatic ..
This report has been truncated here. If you would like to read it or to subscribe, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com
For our new readers
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Geopolitical Research Team – 16 Feb 2025
info@geopoliticalresearch.com
Research made in Switzerland
Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.
No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.
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