A World in Transition
Following the End of the Cold War – i.e. for some 15 years now – the world has entered an unprecedented period of TRANSITION in which every realm of society could be affected. Many trends at economic, political or military levels are increasingly overlapping and affecting one another. Takushi calls this the GREAT CONVERGENCE process that will ultimately lead to a New Balance of Forces (Equilibrium). The massive money printing, globalization, rise of revolutionary socialism in Latin America and the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe are only some of the symptoms of this transition. Every period of major transition is characterized by growing uncertainty and recurring crises.
Christian Takushi, observes that other fields of society including religion, democracy and even areas of science like geophysics are increasingly unsettled and joining this GREAT CONVERGENCE. Instead of democracy many nations are now embracing interventionist state capitalism. Although leaders and media talk about Market Economy, the reality is that it is being replaced by Oligopolies. Big businesses are lobbying the political process in ways that resemble the period leading to WWI. Back then oil giants in the USA shaped the political agenda and influenced governments.
End of the world or new equilibrium?
This increased convergence will lead to increased distrust, tension, confrontation and ultimately major changes on the face of the earth. While many observers, concerned individuals and religious leaders see the next major crisis as the end of the world, Christian Takushi sees it as leading to a NEW EQUILIBRIUM. It will encompass a global re-set in the economic, political, military and religious realms. Putting the Euro-Crisis in this global context helped Takushi advise decision makers NOT to expect the collapse of the Euro. Although the Euro was a macro-economically flawed idea that he personally fought from its beginning, it was geopolitically the only way for Europe to retain some relevance. After all, Eurozone nations make up less than 14% of the world’s output (using the IMF’s PPP-adjusted country weights).
Christian Takushi concludes that the global convergence of macroeconomic & geopolitical trends is advancing faster than expected and exposing a vulnerable and unprepared Europe – along with Japan and other nations. While many observers see the USA in secular decline, Takushi sees it as the strongest candidate to lead the New Equilibrium on military, energy, demographic and economic grounds. Nevertheless a large unconventional event like an electromagnetic pulse or natural disaster could change this. The fact that Washington is mobilizing its military back to the homeland and deploying equipment and troops across states could be a sign that it is taking such risks seriously. But the USA may have to share power with large supra-national governments and multi-national blocks. The coming crises should overwhelm many nations, leading to the largest power concentration and wealth transfer in modern history. China has time till 2024 to challenge the US supremacy and Takushi expects it to try geopolitical & unconventional means before the demographic gap worsens to China’s disadvantage.
An unprecedented confluence of events in diverse realms of society and nature could be ahead of us.
- CFA Webinar: Does it matter for global investors who wins the US Elections?
- Geopolitical Update : Supreme Court shifts to centerstage of US elections
- Interview – A military clash is likely before US elections
- Geopolitical Update : China advances all fronts – A Second Dunkirk
- Geopolitical Update : Jobs data & Covid-resurgence – More market decoupling ahead?