Methodology

Our methodologies cannot be fully described here. Some key proprietary elements are also not disclosed on purpose.

Description and Methodologies: The methods are not an end to themselves, they are applied in a subsidiary way to help our research achieve the goals here described.

Observers say that Christian Takushi has broadened Macroeconomic Research to include geopolitical factors. He also broadened the logical-linear Western view of the world to include the rather circular Oriental way of seeing the world.

Description of our Research

The three pillars of our research

a)     We are truly independent and think out of the box  (the latter is impossible without the former)

b)     We are driven solely by analysis, not by ideology or news flow

c)     We release a report only when we deviate significantly from consensus

Additionally this is what you can expect from us

1. We have a balanced approach combining Western linear-logical analysis and Oriental circular-historical analysis
2. We focus on strategic issues that consensus is underestimating, often at aggregate levels of non-linear complexity
3. Our focus is on analysis, consistency and speed – Not on nice design
4. This is not a periodical – we don’t want to add to the news noise
5. We don’t rely on informers, many informers are now part of disinformation – All our working hypotheses are continually tested

Disclosure: We all have filters. Every economist and every political analyst has a kind of model or limitations/constraints.  He/she is shaped to a greater or lesser extent by his/her background and world-view. Although he pursues the truth with an un-ideological balanced approach, Christian Takushi’s geopolitical macro analysis may be shaped, influenced or constrained by the factors/goals stated below. We suggest readers to check different sources and opposing views and to be beware of any source that claims to own practically all the facts and the truth. Even true facts on an issue can be easily used to distort its projected image via statistical methods or by simply systematically omitting certain facts. We believe that the role of analysts and political activists should not be mixed. We try not to mix our personal opinions into the analysis – Any personal opinion would be made explicitly clear. 

Here in more detail methodologies and other factors that shape and constrain our research:

1) An innovative synthesis of geopolitical & macroeconomic analysis:

• Priority on analysis of interactions & overlaps at aggregate levels
• Causality in both directions is considered to account for feedback loops. Caution with correlations.
• Main objective is to provide a clearer Macro Outlook that takes into account geopolitical forces – This is achieved by in-depth analysis of publicly available data, and not by relying on informers, government information (which is becoming increasingly disinformation) or conspiracy theories etc.

2 ) Methodologies used in Macroeconomic analysis:

• Macroeconomic & Monetary Theory
• Classical and neoclassical business & credit cycles theory
• Macroeconomic empirical research
• Constrained rational expectations and efficiency of markets
• Probabilistic Scenario Modelling, Extensive Consistency Analysis and Prioritization of Analysis-Gained “a priori” Knowledge (AGaK) guard against managed information and disinformation
• Proprietary Time Series analysis methodologies developed over 35 years
• Proprietary Macroeconomic Efficiency Ratios (MER) and Time Series Aggregation techniques developed in the light of globalization and the rise of emerging economies
• No forecast has deterministic properties (i.e. no “impossible events” and no “absolutely certain” events)
• All working hypotheses are continually tested
• Probabilistic Scenario Modelling

3 ) Methodologies used in Geopolitical Analysis


• Priority on overlaps and interaction at macro level
• Prioritization on Analysis-gained Information (AGI) and Analysis-Gained “a priori” Knowledge (AGaK)
• Probabilistic Scenario Modelling, Extensive Consistency Analysis and Prioritization of Analysis-Gained “a priori” Knowledge (AGaK) guard against managed information and disinformation
• GROM methodology: Global Risk Overlap Method (an early warning system for Global Risk assessment)
• Lev-AL methodology: Level of Alertness for businesses to handle operational disruptions (business DEFCON)
• Geographical issues (i.e. river grid, sweet water etc ) and historic evolution of borders
• Projection of Military Power at sea, land and in the air – trends, cycles and disruptions considered
• No forecast has deterministic properties (i.e. no “impossible events” and no “absolutely certain” events)
• All working hypotheses are continually tested
• Probabilistic Scenario Modelling
• Cultural attributes that condition “thinking” and “decision-making” (linear vs circular etc)
• Social & political trends (i.e. income gap, polarisation, demographics etc.)
• Religion and faith-related trends and cycles
• History of bilateral relations and past national failures (political & military history)

4 ) Personal background shapes perspective to some extent:

• Christian has not only broadened Macroeconomic Research to develop an effective approach for Geopolitical Analysis, he has also broadened the logical-linear Western view of the world to include the rather circular Oriental way of seeing the world. This was definitely shaped by his “growing up” with simultaneous exposure to Western and Oriental world-views and values (Japanese, South American, German etc.)
• Encompassing the West, East and South. A child of immigrant families from Europe & Asia to Latin America – he is not caught up in a “East vs West” worldview nor is he stuck in a “North vs South” mentality
• Personal experience of risks of emerging economies: socialism, hyper-inflation, military coup, civil war, terrorism and  discrimination of minorities
• Christian faith and respect for people’s spirituality, religion and way-of-thinking
• Logical approach to questions shaped by training in math, physics and economics

Note: Macroeconomic research and experience has shown Christian that what some people sometimes categorise as evil or good intent is simply the pursuit of logical political or economic interests; sometimes both. This greatly reduces the need for conspiracy theories to explain events and trends.

> Recommended next page: Geopolitical Macro Landscape