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Methodology

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Disclosure: We all have filters. Every economist and every political analyst has a kind of model, he/she is shaped to a greater or lesser extent by his/her background and world-view. Although he pursues the truth with an un-ideological approach, Christian Takushi’s geopolitical macro analysis is shaped, influenced and constrained by the factors/goals stated below. 

Observers say that Christian Takushi has broadened Macroeconomic Research to include geopolitical factors, but also also broadened the logical-linear Western view of the world to include the rather circular Oriental way of seeing the world.

Here in more detail what has shaped or constrained his research:

1) An innovative synthesis of geopolitical & macroeconomic analysis:
  • Priority on analysis of interactions & overlaps at aggregate levels
  • Causality in both directions is considered to account for feedback loops
  • Main objective is to provide a clearer Macro Outlook that takes into account key geopolitical forces
2 ) Methodologies used in Macroeconomic analysis:
  • Macroeconomic & Monetary Theory
  • Classical and neoclassical business & credit cycles theory
  • Macroeconomic empirical research
  • Constrained rational expectations and efficiency of markets
  • Time series analysis
  • Proprietary Macroeconomic Efficiency Ratios (MER) and Time Series Aggregation techniques developed in the light of globalization and the rise of emerging economies.
3 ) Methodologies used in Geopolitical Analysis

  • Priority on overlaps and interaction at macro level
  • GROM methodology: Global Risk Overlap Method (an early warning system for Global Risk assessment)
  • Lev-AL methodology: Level of Alertness for businesses to handle operational disruptions (business DEFCON)
  • Geographical issues (i.e. river grid, sweet water etc ) and historic evolution of borders
  • Projection of Military Power at sea, land and in the air
  • Cultural attributes that condition “thinking” and “decision-making” (linear vs circular etc)
  • Social & political trends (i.e. income gap, polarisation, demographics etc.)
  • Religion and faith-related trends
  • History of bilateral relations and past national failures (political & military history)
4 ) Personal background shapes perspective to some extent:
  • Christian has not only broadened Macroeconomic Research to develop an effective approach for Geopolitical Analysis, he has also broadened the logical-linear Western view of the world to include the rather circular Oriental way of seeing the world. This was definitely shaped by his “growing up” with simultaneous exposure to Western and Oriental world-views and values (Japanese, South American, German etc.)
  • Child of immigrants from Europe & Asia to Latin America – not caught up in a “East vs West” worldview
  • Personal experience of risks of emerging economies: socialism, hyper-inflation, military coup, civil war, terrorism and  discrimination of minorities
  • Christian faith and respect for people’s spirituality, religion and way-of-thinking
  • Logical approach to questions shaped by training in math, physics and economics

Note: Macroeconomic research and experience has shown Christian that what some people categorise as evil or good intent is simply the pursuit of logical political or economic interests; sometimes both. This greatly reduces the need for conspiracy theories to explain events and trends.

> Recommended next page: Geopolitical Macro Landscape

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