This interview complements our recent reports – 28 Nov 2024.
Econ. Christian Takushi is interviewed by Cris Sheridan at Financial Sense in San Diego, USA – The interview explains how the world, especially China, Europe and LatAm are reacting to a 2nd Trump Administration.
The audio is a courtesy of Financial Sense, USA: the interview explores the potential winners and losers of a second Trump presidency, covering regions such as Europe, Mexico, Israel, South America etc. It provides an update on the recent opening of the new Chancay mega port in Peru, a development that will significantly grow trade between China/Asia and South America. Christian examines the geostrategic implications of this event, Peru’s efforts to counterbalance it through a deeper military agreement with South Korea, and how the U.S. has responded to these developments.
Very often analysts like to emphasise tensions between powers. But at this APEC Summit and the controversy around this strategic port of Chancay, one has to say that all nations involved – the USA, China and Peru – did their best to maintain a balance. Over all US and Chinese officials handled the summit with propriety. The host, President Boluarte also has been widely praised for handling the summit professionally and for giving world leaders enough time for their bilateral talks, some of which were tense.
Balancing act: The USA helped to keep the balance by wisely matching China’s investment in the Chancay port. The port cost so far USD 1’300 mio. But US Secretary Blinken donated trains worth USD 1’000 mio and envisioned a NASA station in Northern Peru worth USD 300 mio. That sent a signal. The US donation was a master stroke, because by giving an existing operational train, Washington bypasses the local bureaucracy. A brand new train may take 10-15 years to be a reality in Peru.
Important note on China: Christian Takushi also highlights that President Xi showed composure (understanding?) and responded well to the counter-balancing act by Peru. The signing of a defence treaty with a US ally at the same summit was a little bit of an “offence” in an Asian culture. But the stakes are high, this is the Western hemisphere and Washington is concerned that a long time US ally wants to do so much business with China.
At the APEC Summit President Xi behaved very politely and was self-controlled. The Chinese officials did not display any overtly celebratory mood though. I think they were aware this was a difficult moment for US officials present. We should also remember originally Peru wanted America to build this port, but the USA showed no interest. Neither did Europe. China finally built it. Over all US and Chinese officials handled the summit with propriety.
Trump aides move in: Trump aides that imply South American nations have sold out to China are throwing all these nations in one basket. Such statements are only strengthen the hand of China in Latam and weaken the standing of those nations that make an effort to balance the growing China influence.
China has accepted there are constraints and that US allies/partners are willing to counterbalance China’s strong influence with certain measures. It also seems that some Trump aides are not aware that Peru has accepted to use US-Customs Scanners to screen everything that goes in and out of that strategic port. That is a remarkable detail that shows the US is vigilant and that so far the advance of China can be done in a responsible way that involved the USA.
Geopolitical Vetting: It is nevertheless obvious that LatAm nations may want to check strategic projects more thoroughly and involved Washington earlier on to avoid unnecessary tensions.
Christian Takushi’s message to Western officials: “If we don’t build the infrastructure in Asia or Latin America, and China ends up doing it, then we need a clear strategy on how to accompany those projects. A way that helps us keep security, but that is also fair and acceptable to China and all nations involved. Anything else would be counterproductive to our National Security”. In the case of the Chancay mega port it is obvious that Peru has taken additional counter-balancing measures to reassure Washington, but also to protect China’s interests. Thanks to this delicate balancing act, both superpowers, Beijing and Washington, can benefit from this port. In fact – as far as the balance is maintained – everyone can benefit from the port: Asian nations, South American nations, the USA, China and Peru. But this may not be the case in other projects in the region or across the emerging world.
Title: Interview: Geopolitics Under Trump 2.0: Winners, Losers, and China’s South America Play
Subtitle: Peru is balancing China’s growing influence with a strategic defence cooperation with South Korea (a close US ally)
An excerpt of our independent geopolitical analysis:
Contingency Plans
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Global Geopolitical Research, Switzerland, 28 Nov 2024
Research made in Switzerland
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