Mounting Crises call for holistic approach
Date: 14 June 2025 (delayed public release on 1 Jul 2025)
Introduction to a guest article
Dear reader
For more than two days Israel and Iran are at war with one another and exchanging fire. The war escalations keep many observers busy and is flooding the news channels. We haven’t released anything on it, because we have expected it and what is unfolding doesn’t force us to change our analysis either.
We are releasing today instead another guest contribution. As it is our tradition – we sometimes publish views that external authors have submitted to us. We neither influence them, nor do we edit them. And as we have said in the past the views expressed in guest articles are not necessarily our views. We still stick to the academic tradition of listening to diverse and challenging views. We thus continue to focus on analysing things and trying to ascertain the more likely outcomes, rather than shaping public opinion.
The complexity and magnitude of what humanity faces cannot be grasped and solved by economists or politicians alone. Today’s contributor is as well-travelled analytical mind with vast experience across different fields and countries. He shares his take on what is unfolding around us and how we might make sense of it – or rather how we might start asking the right questions.
Mounting Crises call for holistic approach
Recently several friends have written to ask my thoughts about the Ukrainian attack on Russia on June 1st. Do I think this new generation of warfare using Artificial Intelligence, drones and robots will change everything? My friends are quite worried about the risk of escalation—especially nuclear strikes—and how these new technologies will make the previous generations of weaponry obsolete and put us all at risk. They are genuinely scared.
After admitting my limited knowledge about such things, this is how I responded.
I am a mere pedestrian in life. For three-quarters of a century, I have walked the domestic and international byways. I’ve taken the high roads and low roads and mingled with my fellow travelers every step of the way. And now that I’ve taken the better part of my life journey, I find myself watching the landscape whiz by at an ever increasing rate. My past has been experiential but the rate of change ahead is exponential. As a septuagenarian and mere mortal, I find this confounding and troubling. What is looming ahead of me before I reach the finish line? Ah, that is the question.
One principle that has guided me along the road of life is to make sure I keep three resources at three fingertips: 1) the lessons of history, 2) daily updates on current events, and 3) staying connected to my biblical roots. In our effort to try to understand past, present, and future it’s less about intelligence and more about wisdom. Facts are external and ephemeral; wisdom is internal and eternal. As we all try to avoiding drowning in the deep, dark sea of information, only wisdom can keep us afloat.
There are presently many rumors flying about new weapons, imminent wars, and technological innovations. Before we overreact, we would do well to remember how things have played out in the past. Consider these scenarios:
— The Egyptian Empire. What brought it down? Massive armies with chariots and state-of-the-art weaponry? Or was it something (or someone) else?
— The Roman Empire. Asking the same questions as above, we might also consider how Rome’s moral decline contributed to its collapse. How did “Germanic barbarians” bring down this mega-power?
— The Third Reich. Ask the same questions and note how human hubris and bad decision-making led to the defeat of the Axis powers…on the Eastern Front, to be specific. It wasn’t only a freezing winter. The Russians overwhelmed the Germans’ military superiority by throwing millions of enraged souls at them, attacking their war machines using dogs with explosives strapped on their backs, wives and children with farmyard implements, and prisoners-of-war who sabotaged production in their munitions factories. Human error, hubristic overreach, and individual resistance erased the millennial dreams of the Aryan Empire.
— The United States’ aspirations to be the world’s greatest and longest lasting superpower. America’s shocking failures in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere shattered the illusion of Westernizing the rest of the world. The country’s formidable arsenal was rendered impotent by clever peasants with tunnels, caves, outmoded weaponry, unorthodox strategies, and indefatigable fortitude.
These are only a few of the many upsets in recorded history. For every Goliath, there seems to be a David waiting nearby. Will similar stories be written again? Of course they will. It’s happening as I you read this. Witness the Ukrainian drones. It’s less that warfare has turned a new corner and more that the cycle of human depravity is still rotating.
Speaking as an American and former expatriate, I believe that most of my compatriots are unaware of how our country and culture have been infiltrated and weakened by those who use Saul Alinsky’s playbook in Rules for Radicals. This game plan has been followed to the letter and taken a few decades to play out. Set your sights on the young. Use the media, the educational system, and social institutions—even churches—to infect minds and weaken bodies. Once a significant percentage of the population has been softened and confused, all is ready for the final moves.
We are now hearing of threats to our water and food supplies and warnings about chemical warfare, sleeper cells, cyber attacks, more pandemics, and countless other looming demons. How much should we worry about such apparently inevitable dangers? Before we lose sleep or collapse with anxiety, I’m suggesting we should temper our fears with a renewed awareness of an even greater power: human error. Conspiracy theories aside, most catastrophes can be traced back to our own ineptitude and stupidity. For example, the massive blackouts in Spain recently were the result of the new solar technology not interfacing with the older infrastructure. The “experts” didn’t see that coming. As a result the power grid shut down throughout the country.
The devastating fires we’ve seen in Hawaii, California, and elsewhere were largely the consequence of human failure. Whenever human beings are in charge, a perfect storm is bound to happen sooner or later. The more we investigate these calamities, the more we see how human mistakes contributed to the disasters. The same is true of airplane crashes and most other “accidents” on our roads, in the air, and on the water, not to mention in our homes and buildings, including factories, refineries, and hospitals. When something big and bad happens, my first assumption is that somebody, or several somebodies, did something wrong.
In theology, it’s called the doctrine of original sin. In society, it’s given other labels: dysfunctional, unfortunate, coincidental, or happenstance. But it’s all the same thing: our inborn tendency to give in to our selfish urges and make bad decisions. We find autonomy more attractive than authority, the immediate more alluring than the infinite, and indulgence more seductive than obedience.
We are spending trillions—not billions—TRILLIONS to develop offensive and defensive systems to keep us safe and maintain our status as top dog. How ironic that our quest for security has become the source of our insecurity! Whether it is our health, our finances, our political identity, or anything else, we need to be reminded of our relatively insignificant place in the universe. Better yet, let’s refocus on what is truly significant. Irrespective of our feelings, the fact is that there is a sovereign Creator who oversees all events and, for some odd reason, cares about creatures like us. He is God. And God is in control even when it seems that chaos reigns.
History and Scripture have declared the truth since the beginning of time. And yet, our innate blindness (read stupidity) remains. It feels like we are wallowing in a toxic environment. So I ask you, what is the most toxic thing our world today? Here’s a hint. It isn’t external; it’s internal. The toxicity of our addiction to self-rule is killing us. We can choose to continue fretting, try forgetting, or resort to letting fear imprison us. If these are our coping mechanisms-of-choice, what might it take to bring us to our knees? A market crash? Microwave weaponry zapping us from above? Nuclear annihilation? Robots and drones? Will it take one of these or perhaps a combination of several? Time will tell.
Whatever is coming next, I don’t pretend to know, but I am reminded of the story of the prophet Jonah. His attempt to escape his divine call was foiled by a big fish and a small worm. It was only when he surrendered to his God-given mission—albeit reluctantly—that he let go of self and changed the course of an entire kingdom. If God used a fish and a worm to turn a fearful fool into a divine channel for redemption, what might God entrust to your shaking, sweaty hands?
William Bruce
External contribution published 14 June 2025 – Public release 1 July 2025
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