Japan, neues Phänomen, aber Deflation ist nicht besiegt (Deflation is not really defeated) German/Deutsch

http://www.schweizerbank.ch/de/artikelanzeige/artikelanzeige.asp?pkBerichtNr=152917

Schweizer Bank – Hans Peter Arnold interviews Christian Takushi in April 2007 about the growing expectation that Deflation in Japan will soon be defeated. The interview was held in German language. Following question and answer summarizes Christian’s view “Sie sehen also keine Trendwende? Alle wollen an den Tod der Deflation glauben; weil sie sonst ihr Geschäft gefährdet sehen. Inflation wird aber erst dann ein Thema, wenn die Wirtschaft nominell um 2 bis 3 Prozent wächst; nicht nur real.”

Arnold: You don’t see a change of the deflationary trend (as the growing consensus)?

Takushi: Everybody wants to believe in the end of deflation, because it is in self interest. But self-sustained inflation will only return to Japan when the economy starts growing again at least by 2% or 3% p.a. in nominal terms, not in real term (with deflation real GDP growth is easily pushed higher – you have to watch nominal GDP growth)

Christian Takushi has been saying since 1998 that developed nations (like Japan) need to watch and aim at Nominal GDP – and nominal GDP per capita – once they enter into deflation as their labor forces begin to age and shrink. He maintains since 1999 that money printing and many other aggressive expansionary monetary policies are futile since they cannot undo the deflationary forces stemming from the “demographic implosion” unleashed by the shrinking of the number of workers, households and balance sheets.