Geopolitical Update : Netanyahu surprises with 5th term – Security rules

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. 10 April 2019 – Switzerland.

Three developing stories deserve some attention. Israel, UK and the EU-China relations. On all three our independent analysis is deviating from mainstream consensus. But let us shed light on Israel this time. It is worthwhile.

Netanyahu surprises ..

Benjamin Netanyahu has stunned the world – he has won the general elections in Israel by a larger margin than expected. His conservative coalition has so far secured 65 of the 120 Knesset seats. In some ways, Netanyahu’s Likud has been able to increase its power. The left was decimated. There is a sense of deep frustration at the EU and at the United Nations.

Pollsters and media asked the wrong question (whom do you like or dislike) instead of asking what voters expect in the future. Most Israelis see a major war in their region as imminent – potentially an invasion by neighbouring states. Unlike the rest of the world, Israelis are not overlooking the massive arms race in the region. Simply put, they are concerned about the eroding Security in the world and especially the Middle East. That is why they voted again for “Bibi”

Seldom before has Israeli media launched such a campaign against a candidate. It backfired. Likud supporters stood their ground, while the traditional opposition parties suffered heavy losses. There are parallels to the US elections in 2016, and yet, there is nothing like Israeli elections. Underneath the bitter rivalries, most voters share the existential fear of a major war in the Middle East.

What is most impressive is the fact that Netanyahu won these contested elections despite the serious allegations from the police (the justice system) and the media. He still faces corruption procedures, which he has deemed a witch hunt.

The problem for Netanyahu is that the right wing parties of his coalition will demand crucial posts and influence. Under pressure from the runner-up candidate Gantz, Netanyahu offered to annex parts of the West Bank. This is something he now may have to deliver.

Not Netanyahu, but Security rules

I ascertain that the Israelis are right: Security is the main issue. We are forecasting that Security or the lack thereof will become the central concern worldwide. The Middle East, South Asia and the Far East lead this deterioration as old conflicts flare up. In the Orient .. wars and atrocities have never been dealt with. In the past, these economies were mostly poor and the old animosities simply simmered on. Growing trade has made many nations in the Orient wealthier though, which they are using to arm themselves at an alarming rate.

The lack of strategic foresight by Western political and business leaders will one day be deemed the key factor that led to conflicts & wars in the Orient and the cataclysmic economic implosion that awaits Europe. Europe is undeniably the biggest victim of that which the Israelis see coming to their region.

We always disagreed with the widespread notion the Global Trade will usher unprecedented World Peace. The notion that all economies benefit from trade is geopolitically naive. The truth & key issue is: Nations don’t benefit equally from trade. Some benefit slightly, while others massively, others become dependent. And truth be told: The winner takes it all! See the economic depression in Southern Europe, while the export boom of Germany.

Peace Deal is coming

World media and most analysts were saying today that this outcome is a massive blow to the already moribund Peace Process. We disagree – we see …

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By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. 10 April 2019 – Switzerland.

Disclaimer: None of our comments should be interpreted or construed as an investment recommendation

Our broad approach to geopolitical research is distinct & independent

(a) All nations & groups advance their geostrategic interests with all the means at their disposal

(b) A balance between Western linear-logical and Oriental circular-historical-religious thinking is crucial given the rise of Oriental powers

(c) As a geopolitical analyst with an economic mindset Takushi does research with little regard for political ideology and conspiracy theories

(d) Independent time series data aggregation & propriety risk models

(e) We only issue a report when our analysis deviates from Consensus