Watch the USD and Gold
Date: 29 Sep 2025 – Public release on 10 Oct 2025 – delayed & truncated
Over the last five weeks much has happened that unleashed drama, controversy and media buzz. Few things over that period came as a total surprise to us though. As we focus on analysing what is being overlooked rather than commenting every event, there is a development that stands out.
One is on the financial-monetary front and relates to the future of the USD and paper currencies in general. The other one is on the geopolitical front with Israel as its Ground Zero. The action on these two policy fronts is normally not highly interconnected. They are two complexes set apart from one another and driven by very different factors. But the assassination of Turning Point USA’s founder, Mr. Charlie Kirk, has changed that.
As we move into the fall of 2025 it will be helpful to pay attention to these two fronts of policy activity
- a) How nations are positioning themselves regarding Israel – the masks are off and many nations are distancing themselves from Israel. Even America’s support for Israel is under pressure from within.
- b) The accelerating massive fiscal deficits of the leading advanced nations has led to a flight to safety– Gold and Silver are shaking off years of repression and are rising sharply in price. Gold is not satisfying the need for more financial freedom among young Americans though.
The many crises of our time keep most of us from seeing what is really important: our leading economies are hopelessly indebted and a financial system overhaul is overdue. Paper money has become intrinsically worthless, yet people are so carried away, they are still trying hard to become rich in debased paper money. At the same time all nations around the world are flexing muscles and projecting power onto the Israel-Palestine conflict. All geopolitical conflicts are increasingly converging over the Middle East.
Isn’t it remarkable how the pressure on our financial system is coinciding with unprecedented pressure on Israel? It is our hope that our readers will be able to discern the important trends despite all the noise and confusion out there.
Revival in America?
The sudden violent death of Mr. Charlie Kirk has ignited a spiritual revival in the United States of America that is likely to add momentum to the resurgence of conservative zeal amongst young Americans. Young Americans are embracing Faith and Freedom in a way we have probably never seen since the 1950’s.
This phenomenon is on the one hand demanding a more independent Foreign Policy – more critical of Israel and NATO partners, and on the other hand boosting demand for decentralised crypto assets.
This is likely to matter more than what most analysts and investors can fathom today, because – as we ascertain – President Trump is going to give it to them.
Trump Administration triggers flight to safety
As a testimony that the White House pays close attention to its voter base, the tragic assassination of Mr. Charlie Kirk is unleashing a policy shift that few international analysts outside America have yet fully recognised.
The policy shift is actually more acceleration than change of direction. The Trump Administration is telegraphing and causing a flight to safety – gold and silver are responding. There are signs that crypto assets could be next (flight to freedom).
Nine months after his stunning victory at the Presidential Elections, President Trump was facing not only a dull in voter enthusiasm and frustration among crypto investors, he was facing a sudden revolt against Israel within his most government-skeptical voter group. While bible-reading Christians are still supportive of Israel, a growing number of conservatives are growing wary of Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The US President is not unhappy about it, because it plays into his embrace of Saudi Arabia and the rich Gulf States in his search for money and investments.
Trump wants Arab-Israeli peace
While Israelis have known President Trump as an ardent supporter of Israel’s security, they may be surprised to see President Trump rearranging the Middle East and eventually imposing a Peace Solution on Israel that Jerusalem might be forced to accept. While smiling on stage, deep down, Israeli leaders confess it will lead to another war and probably their greatest test yet. War in the Middle East seems inevitable: It is war followed by peace or peace followed by war. For Arab leaders the return of President Trump to the world stage is an opportunity of historic proportions. A unique chance to advance their strategic goals. Trump’s strength in the West is his weakness in the Orient.
It is quite remarkable: In the eyes of Western leaders President Trump is highly unpredictable, but in the eyes of Oriental leaders he is seen as predictable.
US Monetary Policy and young voters
Most conservatives share a certain skepticism towards government, which leads them to be somewhat skeptical of paper currencies and to lean towards gold, silver, hard assets and crypto currencies. Nevertheless, in relation to money & investments, President Trump has several camps in his voter base.
While older conservatives have deeper pockets and can afford to invest in gold, younger conservatives have embraced crypto currencies. Partly because of its digital mobility, but also because of the greater volatility and lower entry prices. Trump understood this very well in 2024 on the campaign trail.
Many analysts say Trump voters like gold, but his younger voters can only afford silver and crypto. We think it is not so much a matter of affordability, but that young conservative voters feel much more at ease and also see a greater upside with crypto assets than with old-fashioned gold. At Geopolitical Research we believe gold, silver and bitcoin are not real competitors, they are complementary assets.
Gold is not the permanent solution?
Having been wrong on Gold for decades .. nowadays many bankers and academia are preparing for the great comeback of Gold, some kind of Gold Standard or a monetary system somehow backed by Gold. But we think they are wrong.
Gold is simply too good – It enforces fiscal discipline. To avert a system collapse and a potential Nuclear First Strike by one of our foes, our governments signal an embrace of Gold to restore confidence. That is what we call the transition. But they are already working on long term solutions that will allow them to spend, spend and spend again. Why? That is how you win elections, create inflation and run businesses.
Our democratic process is broken, we simply don’t deserve a Gold Standard. Neither the politicians nor the voters are ready for a Gold Standard or anything similar to it. Yes, they’ll be wrong on Gold twice.
This report has been truncated here. If you wish to read the whole report or subscribe to our newsletter you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com, while stating your full name and country of residence.
Other subtitle in this report ..
- Can Gold fall out of favour
- Not all Trump voters are happy
- Gold investors deride Bitcoin
- Mobilising young conservatives for the Mid Terms?
- What does this mean for investors?
For new readers
We have committed to focus on objective analysis of geopolitical and economic developments – doing so with respect and a balanced approach. We seek to add value. Especially, because many commentators, journalists and analysts these days are passing judgement. They are keen to shape pubic opinion rather than reporting or analysing facts. We appreciate activists – the world needs them, but we also need reporters and analysts that strive to separate their personal opinion from their professional work. Furthermore we have committed to focus on that which consensus is underestimating and releasing a report only when our analysis deviates from consensus significantly. A reminder: we are not a periodical. When we release a report depends solely on how our analysis differs from consensus and if we have changed our assessment.
Geopolitical Research Team – 29 Sep 2025 – Public release on 10 Oct 2025 truncated
info@geopoliticalresearch.com
Research made in Switzerland
Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.
No part of this report should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.
Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.
Independent research and releasing a report only when we deviate from consensus adds value.