TRUMP is back – BIG! sv
TRUMP is back – BIG!
By Christian Takushi, Economist – Switzerland, 6 Nov 2024 (delayed & truncated public release on 8 Nov 2024)
The American people have spoken and they have given former President Donal J. Trump a massive mandate for change. We have witnessed one of the most remarkable political comebacks in modern history.
Like in 2016 we were led to expect a Trump victory in 2024 – this time we even went as far as to foresee a red sweep over the three branches (president, senate and house of representatives). I did not expect Trump to win the popular vote this overwhelmingly though.
Those of you that follow our research reports since 2015 know that I don’t like to make sensationalist statements nor flashy forecasts. I put more importance on analysis than forecasts. Why? An avalanche of forecasts and data is part of our problem in the world today. There are simply too many forecasts, often driven by activism, but few solid rationales or analysis to back them up. I am also often reserved with sharing my forecasts, because I don’t want to become popular, just because we got a few important events right in the past. It is the analysis what matters! I see our track record as God’s grace to us and that we still have to focus on forward looking analysis.
The result of this election cycle will be one of the most upsetting events in world politics of the past 80 years – of this I am sure. It is likely to have a massive impact on the macroeconomic landscape and the political process. The big wars we have also predicted in the past ten years for Europe and the Middle East will not be averted – they are likely to be delayed.
Nevertheless I’d like to share what unfolded over the past two weeks with you – I think it tells a lot about what is going on right now.
In recent months – at conferences and seminars – I have been saying how I expected these elections to unfold. Then once again the CFA Institute asked me to share my analysis and prediction for the US elections before Election Day.
This has become a little tradition that honours us, because it shows the most influential institution for investment professionals worldwide appreciates our analysis and our ability to talk about a highly charged complex topic in a balanced way without personal biases. I used that public CFA webinar to make our forecast public: a Trump win, based on all available information.
At that CFA Seminar of October 23rd I stated that we are expecting President Trump to win the elections. Yesterday, a CFA official that participated at the recent conference asked me if I was still sticking to my prediction.
My reply:
” .. Now it comes down to who does show up to vote today. So, some would say “anything is possible now”. But barring any surprises and if I’d follow my instincts and experience, Trump still takes this. The Senate and House were in play as well “
The red sweep we have been cautiously expecting is here.
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Results as we write this:
Trump is winning the race for US President and the GOP has secured Senate (more solidly than we expected though). The GOP is on track to hold the House as well.
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We need to pause and reflect
I think it is important for investors and business leaders to understand how this result came to be. They need to understand how the world is changing – This is a strong mandate.
America under Trump will be tough for allies and foes alike.
As I have said for months .. I am worried about Europe. Our leaders have mocked, despised and insulted Trump all the way, even in recent months and days. Strange our leaders didn’t tone down their rhetoric earlier. Europe should adapt in self interest – America doesn’t really need us. As I have said Europe is in for a very tough four years.
Europe is vulnerable and caught in a massive strategic trap .. so our leaders should be putting our economic interests first now.
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Here the CFA Society event on US elections
https://www.youtube.com/embed/MGrPjkYBfwE
Important note
Let’s give thanks to God that the US elections seem to have unfolded safely and without any major disruptions.
This peace and lack of violence should not be taken for granted.
Geopolitical Research Team – 6 Nov 2024
info@geopoliticalresearch.com
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Disclaimer: No information or comment should be construed as investment advice.
Global Geopolitical Research
Research made in Switzerland
Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.
No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.
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