Article by Binci Heeb – The Broker – Switzerland, Delayed release 28 Oct 2024
This external article complements our recent newsletters.
Mr. Takushi spoke at a CFA Society Seminar about the US elections and the impact on Europe.
With courtesy of The Broker / Mrs Binci Heeb
Navigating Global Turbulence: Insights from Christian Takushi’s Webinar
https://www.thebroker.ch/navigating-global-turbulence-ch-takushis-webinar/
With courtesy of The Broker / Mrs Binci Heeb
Reaction by Mr. Takushi to the article:
Thank you Binci Heeb for this excellent summary of the English-language CFA webinar on the US elections
For US citizens, it will probably change directions who wins on November 5th. But for people on the European continent, both Harris and Trump are likely to be uncomfortable.
The convergence of long-term trends coupled with Europe’s many strategic mistakes leaves US governments with no other choice.
Under Harris US foreign policy will get tougher and is likely to trigger even more conflicts, while under Trump his peace in Ukraine and the Middle East will be overshadowed by severe economic measures.
Since Europe has maneuvered itself into a huge strategic trap, Europe will also be the biggest victim of the tougher US foreign and economic policy.
We should not blame America for our fate. Every nation takes advantage of its opportunities and advantages. We have been dismantling our armies for over 20 years, thinking Net Zero.
No security, no prosperity. Utter lack of Geopolitical Foresight is becoming very expensive for Europe.
Since we managed to predict the big surprise of Trump’s victory in 2016, many people asked in the run-up to the seminar who would win on November 5th. Since October 11th, we see Trump in the lead.
General comments
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- For Europe it doesn’t matter who wins in November in America. It is going to be very difficult either way
- America’s greatest threat to National Security is domestic: Out of control fiscal-monetary policies
- Europe faces a USD 9-10 Trillion financing gap – Officials may need to mobilise private savings. The Capital Market Union might be part of the solution.
- Investors neglect Turkey – Iran is likely to help Russia and China
- Geopolitical Safety: Uruguay and Mauritius top the ranking as New Zealand is under review for downgrade
Contingency Plans:
Smart investors have shifted part of their assets to geopolitical safe nations in the Southern hemisphere that are not highly indebted and respect private property. Building a second base for your business or family requires good preparation and it can take up to three years time. No single location is risk-free, so a wise combination of locations is the best way forward for the next 5-10 years. For many persons and firms based in the USA and Europe the combination of Switzerland-Uruguay is effective. But for some people Mauritius or Singapore is the better fit. The most complementary combination of Safe Havens is currently Gstaad (CH) and Punta del Este (UY). But there are other combinations – it depends on one’s needs.
Kind regards
Geopolitical Research Team
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Disclaimer: No information or comment should be construed as investment advice.
Global Geopolitical Research
Research made in Switzerland
Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.
No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.
info@geopoliticalresearch.com