US Elections not over yet – Beware of the run up to Nov 5th (sv)

Geopolitical Research – Switzerland 20 July 2024 (public release on 25 July 2024, adjusted and truncated)

US Elections not over yet – Beware of the run up to Nov 5th

Dear reader

The assassination attempt on former President Trump is not just a tragic event, but potentially also a watershed moment in US political history.

In our last report we wrote that America was experiencing a 2nd Civil War – one of acute political warfare. One in which the other party is seen openly as a threat to democracy. As I wrote on July 12th I deemed it a state of warfare, because of the heated political discourse where all options seem to be on the table and the goal justifies the means.

Many people have the imagery of the Civil War and say we are close, but not there yet. In reality events seldom repeat themselves in identical fashion, rather in similar nature. So, as long as people don’t see federal troops fighting patriot militias they think we don’t have warfare on US soil. But we do have political warfare – the casualties are often policy casualties. People with drug overdose, victims of illegal criminal immigrants, people without health care coverage, schools with mediocre results .. and increasingly foreign nations that underestimate America.

Technology, globalisation and social media are so far shaping this US political warfare. As we have been writing for months – the ongoing domestic political warfare in America is de facto forcing Washington (no matter whether Democrat or Republican) to use an ever more assertive Foreign Policy to shape public discourse and win elections.

With almost total gridlock at home, Foreign Policy is the only realm of free rein for any sitting President. This is being dramatically augmented by the fact that Emerging Powers are also challenging America’s supremacy. Few US allies have fully understood this and they are likely to be victims of a global struggle for supremacy.

The assassination attempt has galvanised and emboldened the GOP, but the aftermath of July 13 – especially the handling by the USSS and FBI – has added fuel to the distrust and anger in American politics. Thus, the political warfare is likely to intensify in the run up to November 5th.

We are not writing today about the Trump assassination attempt itself, because enough analysts and security experts are already expanding on it. We prefer to put it in perspective and to focus on the big picture.

America is not down and out

While many see this intensifying political warfare as a reason to lose hope in America or to discount America, I don’t quite see it that way. America is unique and it has the amazing ability to adapt and recover.

When you look at the USA, it is probably the only Western power, where the political process is so disputed. But the economy thrives despite of that .. or maybe thanks to that political chaos.

In other Western nations people complain about the prolonged dominance or “oppression” of a liberal-left leaning system that controls the education system and the media. It may be felt as oppressive, because for many years there is no real change or alternative. In Germany many citizens told me already ten years ago that their formerly conservative parties CDU/CSU had become de facto centre-liberal parties. In the UK, analysts told me seven years ago that the so-called Conservative Party had morphed into a centre-liberal party. Thus, Europe has been in the grip of liberal and left-leaning forces for longer than we might think. Nothing against that, but in my view competition of ideas is healthy – The prolonged dominance of de facto liberal-left leaning parties in Europe has led to economic stagnation and geopolitically naive decisions with terrible results.

Europe has dramatically underestimated the importance of military power and military deterrence. America’s military power permeates every policy realm.

In the USA people with Christian-conservative values on the one hand and people with liberal-progressive values on the other hand are fighting for control over the political agenda for the nation. No side seems to have a total dominance. So often European politicians look down on the gridlock of the US Congress, but in reality Washington does what Washington was designed to do. To be in gridlock most of the time – The Founding Fathers were concerned about a state apparatus becoming ever more powerful and unchecked – they wanted that different centres of power keep each other in check. That is the strength of the America – Washington is under constant review, control and check. The never ending crises and scandals keep it self-absorbed . The gridlock on Capitol Hill at the margin forces the President and Congress to unleash their biggest adventures on Foreign Policy, not the Homeland.

The race is not over yet

Many analysts say the race is practically over. But I disagree with them. Sure, the momentum of the Trump-Vance ticket is so strong and the infighting around President Biden so evident, only a powerful event could reshape the race. But that is exactly what is in the making. With a probability of 70% I expect something to happen that could shake the world and the elections.

Given the global geopolitical backdrop (i.e. Israel-Hezbollah-Yemen and Taiwan escalation among other conflicts) the announcement of the Trump-Vance policy program (GOP platform) as outlined at the RNC Convention and the reaction by the UK-EU-Ukraine to it .. leads me to ascertain that the last 5-6 weeks in the run-up to the General Elections will be very difficult and possibly full of distress.

Review your agenda and active risks

As we have written in the past – the geopolitical diversification of assets and income streams will be crucial in the years to come. While this favours some industries, gold, bitcoin and certain commodities, it also favours certain jurisdictions in the Southern hemisphere with better macroeconomic policies and geopolitical neutrality than Europe, North America and even Australia.

Europe is misreading America

Too many people around the world have been discounting America for years. Especially here in Europe – it is fashionable to laugh about or even mock America. European experts overwhelmingly agree that America is down and out – in decline. They think they know America, but they judge America through European lenses (with our mindset). Wherever they see chaos, gridlock and faith in God .. they roll their eyes and see backwardness or weakness. In Europe the government normally is in control and it dominates society. We in Europe fail to understand that this is how the Founding Fathers structured America: with a gridlocked Washington, so that the individuals and the states could flourish. There is a reason why the states elect the President.

Brussels, Paris and Berlin have overlooked two things:

(1) America is not finished yet

(2) A challenged America (in decline) will shape the world even more than before – It is increasingly using assertive language, sanctions and threats

If we put this into the current global context, Europe should be much more cautious. It is seen as the most weakened, most vulnerable and most defenceless power – our leaders are making one strategic mistake after the other.

As Russia, China and America struggle for supremacy and ..

This report has been adjusted and truncated here. If you wish to read the full report or subscribe, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Geopolitical Research Team – 20 July 2024 (public release on 25 July 2024, adjusted and truncated)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Research made in Switzerland

Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.

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US Elections not over yet – Beware of the run up to Nov 5th (sv)