White House Drama overshadows other crises ..

Geopolitical Research – Switzerland 12 July 2024 (public release 2 days delayed)

Title: White House Drama overshadows other crises

Dear reader

In recent days we were working on trying to finalise a research report that has been in the pipeline for more than five weeks. It addresses one of the most important and daring policy programs since WW2 .. and it is not what the media has been flooding the airwaves with in recent months.

But given the magnitude of what is evolving in Washington over the past 24 hours, we are releasing this comment. Not to give you my personal take on President Biden vs VP Kamala Harris, or what George Clooney or Nancy Pelosi have stated in recent days. Not even on how the current self-inflicted drama could upend or change the outcome of the US Elections. We have an opinion on each one of them, but we will spare you that. Too many analysts want to share their views, as if they would matter.

We have worked over night and are releasing this unexpected report, because I believe consensus is missing three big issues at the moment. We have committed ourselves to watch and analyse what consensus and markets are overlooking or underestimating. Today is such a time.

(1) The way the multiple global & regional crises have simultaneously evolved and converged in recent months .. for the rest of the world it matters less and less who wins in November.

A Biden-Trump duel would surely unfold differently from a Harris-Trump duel in terms of drama, but the real impact on the world would not be as positive and decisive as Republicans and Democrats want us to believe. I don’t want to ruin your Trump trade , but markets are in utter denial about the risks out there. We have passed the Point Of No Return while officially the Implied Risks in Financial Markets are hovering near all time record lows (i.e. VIX etc). Officially there are practically no risks: our interest rates are very low and we are doing fine. But all that is being “fixed” by our G7 governments since 2009 and doesn’t reflect economic reality nor our massive debt. Rising asset prices simply reflect massive liquidity injections and massive deficit spending by our Western governments.

The Civil War-like mood in Washington is that a Trump-win is the end of democracy, so it is like “all” options are on the table to avert it. After all that has happened in America – the January 6th drama and the prosecution of Trump among other events, we have decidedly entered a phase where “the end justifies the means”.

For Europe it may not really matter who wins in November. Surely, not as much as we are being told. Whether the US President likes it or not, he or she will be forced to increasingly use Foreign Policy and the USD as a weapon.

The intensity of this “2nd America n Civil War” is so furious, Democrats and Republicans will be forced to continue to use an ever more aggressive Foreign Policy in order to assert authority and to win General Elections and Mid Term Elections.

(2) We are living in a period that is more complex and dangerous than the Cuba Crisis of 1962 and the leader of the so-called Free World operates in a White House cocoon where everything is pre-scripted for him to minimise gaffes and campaign damage. Thus the so-called Free World is far more vulnerable this summer than what most people realise. Will a beleaguered and somewhat embittered Moscow and Beijing pass on the chance to hurt the West?

North Korea and Iran are the nightmare escalation scenarios US allies have overlooked . In a White House where the questions and even the answers are being carefully scripted, can you meticulously pre-script the moves by Putin or Kim Jong Un ? Good luck White House, good luck America and good luck US allies.

President Biden has de facto two air-tight shields around him that pre-script everything that happens in the White House in order to protect his image. Imagine President John F. Kennedy being told only what has been “scripted” about Nikita Khrushchev rather than JFK engaging with Pentagon, CIA, Congress and Moscow head on in order to avert a disastrous conflagration. We desperately need a JFK in the White House. Not only that, we need genius advisers he can fully trust like Bobby Kennedy , who helped mastermind the Cuba blockade. While President John F. Kennedy had Bobby Kennedy and Henry Kissinger – two geniuses in the prime of life – in closest proximity during the Cuba Crisis, President Biden has Jill Biden. Sympathy aside, I agree with those that think we need to move quickly – and not because of the elections.

Recapping: The concern is that given the speed of the recent decline in health the top priority of the Biden Family and the White House is not the security of NATO and allied nations like Switzerland, South Korea and Israel, but the desperate round-the-clock efforts to control the damage and portray a performant President.

This is not the summer of 1990, but the summer of 1962 .. if not worse. Thus the free world asks “please get us a fit President and Commander in Chief in the White House”.

(3) In recent weeks NATO-aided Ukraine Forces have been attacking Strategic Early Warning Radars of the Russian Nuclear-Warfare Defense System. Given the growing complexity of the NATO weapons involved, non-Western experts are saying the role of US-UK-French-German troops and NATO military satellites is increasing to a point where NATO permission to Ukraine may be seen as de facto an inner-NATO affair.

Because an attack on the early warning radar system of a nuclear power is what technically precedes a Nuclear First Strike, such a move is a tricky Red Line that could trigger a pre-emptive massive tactical attack against Western Europe or a strategic nuclear strike against NATO. We came close to a NATO-Russia escalation and our strategy is not more coherent 6 weeks later.

The West’s nightmare: After the recent attack on its Nuclear Early Warning System, will Moscow refuse Pyong Yang the transfer of technology to dramatically extend the range of their Nuclear Ballistic Missiles? Will Teheran hold back with its advanced Mid-Range Ballistic Missiles as well? The situation we have now is far worse than the Cold War, because ..

It doesn’t add up – Our economic war on China & Russia lacks coherence

Given the many crises that our media is throwing at the public these days, it is understandable that the public and investors are not aware of how close NATO and Russia are to a direct confrontation and Nuclear War. The probability of a NATO-Russia war has risen to 30-40%. Some people have told me “well, we are fine it is not 70% yet”. But do you have 30% of your assets in the Southern hemisphere to say so? It dawned on them, none had taken any measures yet.

Back to Europe I’ve seen people booking vacations and leasing fancy cars. Nothing against leisure once the homework is done. All as if Ukraine and Gaza were not in flames and as if Washington and Moscow were in direct communication with one another. The truth is the leaders of Russia, China and America are not talking to one another. Washington and Brussels are busy designing a technological-commercial embargo against China. Back in 1941 a similar policy led to Japan attacking Pearl Harbor. I don’t mind sanctions, but aren’t these the same politicians that approved total trade with autocracies a few years ago and that made us utterly dependant on them in the first place? I warned about our naive policies as early as 2010.

Our leaders are not only presiding over hopelessly indebted and technically bankrupt states, they are talking about the inevitable need to prepare for war with Russia, but at the same time .. we all want to go on vacations in July 2024 and earn the same as before.

Follow the money – It is not enough

The EU implies that rebuilding our military will cost EURO 100 Bn and America will send its troops to fight (possibly die) for us again. But to rebuild our military and prepare for war would need in excess of EURO 1’000 Bn. Money Europe doesn’t have ..

This report has been truncated and shortened. If you want to subscribe or read the full report, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Geopolitical Research Team – Fri 12 July 2024 (public release 2 days delayed)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Research made in Switzerland

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