Geopolitical Research – Switzerland 16 May 2024 (delayed public release on 12 July 2024)

Title: US Politics to shape the world in next 6 months

Dear reader

Many people are wondering what is happening to mankind. The wars we’ve watched on TV over the past 50 years have misled many. Those were managed proxy wars. Total war is different and it will overwhelm many people.

Western governments – already deeply indebted – are running huge deficits and are now spending money (they don’t have) in the most aggressive way since WW2. The rest of the world is either avoiding to take sides or collaborating with Russia and China. The latter two are challenging Western supremacy and our West-influenced international order.

The world is on confrontation course and on many fronts the world is already at war. The war between the superpowers has already begun and is raging on the technology, commercial, trade, cyber, monetary and information (news) fronts. In these troubled times self-absorbed Washington is responding with an ever more assertive attitude: Collaboration is being increasingly replaced by threats and sanctions. You either go with us or we will sanction you. Can America get away with this? People ask me. Yes, I say.

We are expecting even a tougher course by the Biden Administration in US Foreign and Military Policy around the world. The President’s domestic agenda has failed to sway US voters in his favour and the Republican controlled-House doesn’t allow much optimism for policy initiatives. Against the current backdrop appeasement won’t get Biden a second term.

Watch US Domestic Politics and Israel

We get letters from people that are worried about the world and that at times are consumed by what is happening in all corners of the globe. But unless we can discern what is crucial from what is a secondary crisis or “noise”, we will end up in utter confusion.

To navigate the remainder of 2024 successfully you will need to focus on and understand what is going on in Washington and Israel – or furthermore where Washington and Jerusalem are headed for. Although both nations try to show unity, they are not aligned. As we have said before. In geopolitical times “it is everyone for himself” for all nations.

America matters

For years European and Asian leaders said America has reached its zenith and begun to decline. America is sick and out said many European leaders in the past ten years. We have always objected and said America is not down and out. But if it is in decline, it will be felt even more on the way out than during America’s century.

The in-fighting in Washington and the level of hatred and intolerance across the country has reached such levels that US politicians and leading US political strategists are increasingly saying “we have to win these coming elections, no matter what. The survival of our nation depends on it. Nothing is off the table”. They view the opposite party as a threat to their nation.

Recent US administrations – regardless of their party affiliation – are forced to take ever more assertive bets in Foreign Policy ahead of US elections. Some see evil plans behind. I don’t. It is just domestic politics making certain policies less appealing or very unlikely. It is the convergence of trends that is forcing governments to take certain actions, not necessarily pre-set plans. If you grasp this, you will be less busy with blaming some government.

China and Russia close ranks

China and Russia are having an easy time in finding allies. Especially with highly vulnerable Western nations (gigantic asset bubbles and debt thanks to non-stop government stimulus) that are unfortunately too often using threats and sanctions in dealing with nations in Africa, Latin America and Asia. But discretely of course. Beijing and Moscow are seizing the moment, expanding their tactical weapons arsenal and accumulating gold.

Europe is becoming the “expendable” partner

With Europe being the least geopolitically savvy, most energy-trapped and especially the most defenceless power, it is very likely that superpowers will take their global conflagration to the next level in Europe. Our assessment has been confirmed by multiple moves. Among them: China and Russia have joined efforts in gaining influence (if not control) over all nations that could be used to block Europe’s key maritime routes and energy alternatives.

War escalation risk at 25-35%

The war is not going well for the West in Ukraine. Soon NATO and EU may be facing a tough choice, intervening in the Ukraine theatre in a decisive way (risking a direct clash with Russia) or accepting a Russian advance on several fronts. Something that our leaders are already saying they will never accept.

The probability that the war in Ukraine could escalate is now at 25% to 35%, the highest since the start of the war. European nations are already making serious plans for conscription of young people to raise an army.

My view since Fall 2021 has been a cautious one: We are entering through a gate that has no happy ending and that could even end up in large scale war. Based on our latest analysis even WW3 and the demise of nearly 25% of mankind cannot be ruled out. Remember this .. this war will NOT end when Ukraine and Russia sign a peace deal. Russia might strike at NATO to get even when nobody expects it. Moscow feels it was forced into this war by the West.

In its war preparations Russia has already scaled back debt & credit in order to shrink its economy. A lean war-ready economy faces a Western world that is highly inflated and over-stimulating aggressively. I am concerned about that. Our leading Western economies are inflating their asset prices and debt bubbles with no regard for our children and children’s children. It is all about short term politics and re-elections. In case of war our economies could implode violently.

Looking at all factors the superpowers have every interest to increase the confrontation in Europe first and then the Middle East. Then in Asia. In that order. Jerusalem could preempt this though and in an adverse election year President Biden could be happy about a new front in the Far East. Nevertheless, the powers involved in North East Asia have been strengthening their impressive military capabilities over the last decade. Unlike Europe, South Korea or Japan knew big military conflicts were coming. These nations are not seating in a multiple strategic trap like Europe either. But they won’t be spared. After Europe, Asia will be stirred.

Britain and Germany face existential risks

To asses your risks properly, you can’t rely on your own view of things. Many Europeans feel for instance that they are not involved in the war in Ukraine. But if they would ask the Russians they would hear that de facto NATO, EU and EU-associated states like Switzerland are all waging war against Russia – to a lesser or greater extent. Furthermore, although one nation could drag them all into war, the risks are not evenly distributed.

European nations are trapped, but none are as trapped as Germany and none are as close to the abyss economically as Britain. Wars, 100% alignment with Washington foreign policy and mismanagement are impoverishing the UK at an alarming pace.

America Only

For ten years our politicians feared “America First” and spoke angrily about it. They were wrong. Ironically it was worse than that – Through the complexities of a globalised world and the sum of our own strategic errors, the result is looking more like “America Only” – America is the only major power in the Western world that is benefiting in a big way from all the chaos and wars. Most other nations – foes and friends alike – are worse off than in 2020, in serious trouble or very close to wars and the potential nuclear contamination from tactical weapons.

The Energy Transition, the war in Ukraine, the decoupling from Russian Gas, the US Inflation Reduction Act, the US Reshoring Policy etc. are just some of the recent big events that are impoverishing Europe fast. The main beneficiary of this degrading of Europe is America. No doubt about it. But we can’t blame America. In geopolitical times, everyone nation is on its own.

Take Britain – Before BREXIT many major emerging nations discussed internally about their delight that Britain would be independent and truly sovereign again. They wanted UK protection, UK weapons, trade deals and UK investments. Not so much because Britain’s economy was better than France’s or Germany’s. Not at all. They knew the world was headed for conflict and in war times you need strong partners that have military knowhow, naval bases, a superb military and can project deterrence. Even better if they have a modern nuclear deterrence.

Now, all these emerging markets have very little interest in UK deals or weapons or other critical goods. They say the UK has become the junior partner of Washington. If Washington sanctions a country, London would follow immediately. Thus, there is no use in buying UK weapons or goods – they can just as well buy American. It is similar with Germany. These nations are not so keen to buy German goods, because they now feel Berlin is not “sovereign” anymore ..

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Geopolitical Research Team – Fri 16 May 2024 (truncated and delayed public release on 12 July 2024)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Research made in Switzerland

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