Geopolitical Research – Switzerland 19 April 2024 (delayed public on 12 Jul 2024, 2.5 months later)

Title: Day of Reckoning for Switzerland

Over the past two years many in Switzerland have been able to keep up the notion that Europe may be at war, but we – as a neutral wealthy state – are fine. Thousands of Brits and Germans have also flocked to Swiss towns in recent winters and summers and to enjoy this Swiss peaceful prosperity.

But in a perturbing public statement Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has categorised Switzerland as an “openly hostile” state towards Russia.

We have to remember that in case of a war escalation, what matters is not how neutral we deem ourselves, but how the combatant nations see us.

Wake up Call

While the Swiss consensus has been that “we may not be as neutral as before, but we are not at all involved in the war – hence we can host a Peace Conference”, we have clearly disagreed based on our independent analysis. We may argue about how involved we are, but we are exposed to war risks. We have repeatedly advised to make serious contingency plans and diversified some assets to the Southern hemisphere. Very few Swiss authorities and companies seem to have done so.

Moreover, we ascertained, Moscow holds a particularly bitter grudge against our country – the Russian elites brought their money here thinking it would be safe. In 2022 we froze their assets and implemented sanctions. That was before we gave tanks to the war effort. We should be sober and consequential and not pretend something we are not. To be in denial can be very risky.

Schweizer Handlungsbedarf – A Swiss to do list

The latest statements from Moscow add urgency to our sobering non-consensual assessment, Switzerland is not just close to a war theatre, de facto it is a potential target should the war escalate.

In the event of a war escalation following places could be at elevated risk: Zürich, Lausanne, Geneva, Payerne Air Base ..

Risks are very diverse though and as important as the geopolitical strategic diversification of your assets is in this decade, the safety of one’s family has even a higher priority. Ironically, bankers advice wealthy clients to get a 2nd residence to save on taxes, but it is often in locations that near war theatres and exposed to possible warfare and other geopolitical risks. The geopolitical illiteracy is not restricted to our political leaders.

Swiss financial industry in denial, could suffer a blow

We can no longer rule out that at one point thousands of investors could begin pulling out their money from Switzerland and other fancy places in the Northern hemisphere in search for less glamorous but geopolitically safer alternatives. I’ve said repeatedly to bank executives “approach your clients proactively with a North-South diversification strategy .. before they notice you are behind the curve”.

Geopolitically safest nations are now in the Southern hemisphere

In our global ranking of geopolitical safety these nations currently top the list: 1) Uruguay, 2 Mauritius (recently upgraded), New Zealand (under review).

We are closely following the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment of all relevant nations in our ranking. If New Zealand joins the AUKUS nuclear military alliance of the USA, UK and Australia we may have to downgrade it further. Mauritius ..

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Geopolitical Research Team – Switzerland 19 April 2024 (truncated and delayed public on 12 Jul 2024, 2.5 months later)

Research made in Switzerland

Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.

No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.

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