Geopolitical Research – Switzerland 14 April 2024 (special release only 7 hours delayed)

For several weeks we have experienced a slow motion build-up in tensions between Iran and Israel. Last night people were asking us if this is the much expected Multi-Front War in the Middle East we have been expecting since 2018. The question already shows people’s perceptions are shaped by mass media.

In recent weeks we didn’t see the need to release a report, but not because of the multi-front conflict itself around Israel we’ve been expecting since 2018. Today we do it, because our first take is significantly deviating from consensus and it matters for our ongoing strategic geopolitical macroeconomic assessment. Let’s say it as clearly as possible ..

Iran was not looking to destroy Israel last night
Iran’s aim was to upend the current proxy war paradigm – this matters to us all
Iran wanted to test the reaction times and triage of Israeli defences

A quick look into the tactical operational theatre: The effective support the USA and UK provided to Israel has raised their influence on Jerusalem in the short term and it is clear Israel will not retaliate right away to keep this coalition going. Britain was the only nation able to stand by the USA to defend shipping in the first month of the Houthi attacks. Now it was again the US-UK alliance shielding Israel and keeping the conflict from escalating. The still near passive and slow-motion reaction of EU states two years into the Ukraine war underscores how the new US-led global military alliance is building around the UK and Australia, not around NATO. Nations like Canada, New Zealand and Japan want to rally around AUKUS. Continental European nations do a lot of talk, but they are militarily too unprepared. The dismantling of 25 years cannot be undone in months – not even a few years.

The big picture in the region

Let’s go back to the strategic theatre and state the evident first, the Middle East is already destabilised and at war. Israel is already fighting Iran-backed enemies on multiple fronts such as Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Gaza and now Iran itself. It is an undeclared war, nevertheless a war.

In our first analysis this attack by Iran was not designed to escalate the conflict to an all-out war. Nor did Iran intend to destroy Israel over the past 24 hours. Not yet. Why not? For these reasons:

Teheran made sure US and Israeli military intelligence would learn about their attack
Teheran signalled a specific time-window that US satellites could confirm
Teheran fired swarms of drones first, giving time to Israel to prepare for the missiles. We think Teheran has tested Israel’s intercept triage
Most importantly, Teheran did not use its most lethal assets: It did not use its upgraded mid-range ballistic arsenal nor did it allow Hezbollah to launch a massive barrage of 10’000s of rockets and missiles from Lebanon, the critical North.

So, was Teheran being kind to Israel? Not at all. Teheran has being able to test the defences, triages and reaction times of Israeli air defences.

If it wanted all-out war it would have fired its fear-instilling ballistic missiles first – some of which might be already nuclear-tipped. Those missiles don’t need 3-4 hours to reach their targets, just minutes.

Why has Iran’s attack shocked world powers?

For many decades now the world powers have been competing and fighting against each other using proxy wars. We all could pretend that we are not at war with one another as long as we used a third country and only killed enemy soldiers on those third countries. Even when it was obvious who did something, we played the game of “ambiguity”.

The dawn of a new era?

Teheran has taken the lead and its move has in a few hours shuddered the big powers’ proxy war game. We’ve crossed into unchartered territory. This bears tremendous significance for the current war in Ukraine, where European nations along the United States of America have felt safe to get ever more involved in the war without being sucked in into combat. While America is combat ready and Britain has a credible deterrence, Continental Europe is far from combat-readiness. Unlike America it cannot spend and print money at will .. so it is both indebted and even unable to finance the first 1/10 of its military rearmament. This is likely to have economic consequences and add pressure on interest rates. Did Moscow encourage Teheran to upend proxy war ambiguity? Well,

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Geopolitical Research Team – Switzerland 14 April 2024 (special truncated release only 5 hours delayed)

Research made in Switzerland

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