As Israel fights on – all powers advance at Europe’s expense (truncated)

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist. Switzerland – 8 Jan 2024 (Public truncated release on 14 Jan 2024)

This is our first report in 2024 and I want to wish you much happiness and success in this new year.

Many people wish peace and joy, but while we all desire them, these two things should not entirely depend on external factors. Ideally, they should come from within. Some would argue from faith, a positive attitude to life and hopefully an accurate assessment of our environment and ourselves.

I hope that our reports will help you make your own informed-balanced assessment of where your country and the world is headed for, so that you can make good decisions. And through those decisions be more effective in your calling and be better prepared for what lies ahead. My hope is not just for my readers to have a better strategic diversification of their assets, but for their families and businesses to be well positioned for what lies ahead.

Many experts dread 2024, we don’t 

With so many crises converging and so many key countries clashing with one another and having general elections in 2024, many experts are saying this year will be a “nightmare” in terms of complexities and shifting scenarios.

They have reasons to be concerned, because Western economies have entered a complex 2024 with overvalued stock markets and unprecedented deficits, thus a vulnerable financial system.

But, we at Geopolitical Research love our task to analyse the geopolitical macroeconomic events of our time – we are thus not overwhelmed nor do we dread the growing complexities. In plain English, I don’t dread Mondays nor do I see a world full of uncertainty and zero visibility. We actually have been expecting the rise of complexities, crises and widespread deception.

A wise investor recently said 

One of Switzerland’s best CIOs (Chief Investment Officer) of recent years, now in retirement, told me last month over lunch. “Christian, I follow this simple approach: I try to avoid the worst events or the worst outcomes and traps – it sounds easy, but few can discern them. If people can avoid the worst mistakes, they can take care of the rest”

I told him – That is remarkable. In my geopolitical analysis I also try to identify the most underestimated big threats .. trying to make people aware of them.

We concluded that if we manage to identify those worst outcomes, we’d have helped our readers a lot. Still, it is not easy for them to avoid disinformation, delusions and deception. There are no easy short cuts to stay clear of them, but if your assessment of our fast changing world has kept you “comfortable” for quite some time, you may want to review your compass.

2024 has started with a miracle 

The new year is very young and one event stands out.

The miracle of Haneda Airport in Japan this week is one heart-warming positive headline that stands out in a week full of troubling news. In a time of cynicism and selfishness the crew and passengers got out of a burning inferno in less than 90 seconds. Divine intervention aside, what made a difference? Excellent preparation. This doesn’t diminish the miracle itself, for some miraculous outcomes are aided by the part we play.

We too hope that our readers will be among the best prepared people for the remainder of this decade.

Set priorities – keep an eye on the Middle East

Out of 130 conflicts around the world, you need to know which ones matter most and how they are connected, otherwise you’d be overwhelmed and confused. This year, we’ll need to discern important from not important.

Israel is currently fighting the 3-Fronts-War we have been expecting since February 2018. Iran’s allies have blocked Europe’s best Supply Route from Asia. But unlike 2018, this war can now – on any given day – force an isolated Israel to preempt an Iranian ballistic attack. Highly respected military experts from around the world believe that an Iran-Israel war could trigger WW3.

How much of these and other geopolitical conflicts have our Financial Markets priced in? A look at Swiss, French, German, US or British stock markets gives a clear but shocking answer: Zero. None of it. Remarkable as 97% of those conflicts are happening in the Northern hemisphere – from where most of the revenues of our listed companies stem from. While the USA can afford to do close both eyes, Europe shouldn’t.

This week Israel killed a top Hamas leader in Lebanon causing Western leaders to worry, because Arab countries host other Hamas leaders as well. Even European nations sometimes host Hamas leaders or their allies. Could they be targeted? But the subsequent blasts in Iran that killed over 100 persons have many puzzled.

There are now concerns there are parties interested in a direct Israel-Iran clash: Nation states but also Islamic groups. Israel seems well prepared, but it too may need a miracle if a war with Iran unfolds. Iran is a superb foe and highly skilled in weapons and systems engineering. While, in the very short term, this tragic event makes an accidental Israel-Iran war less likely, Israel has understood that Iran’s proxies want to exhaust Israel in lengthy wars, but the real source of the threats is Iran – Thus it has to deal with Iran sooner rather than later.

Israel has additionally ascertained in recent weeks that the appeasement strategy of its Western allies only makes sure that at a later point Israel may not be able to deal with Iran’s growing ballistic arsenal. The one massive arsenal no one in the West wants to talk about – we in the West kind of enabled Iran to build it, assuming only Israel or Saudi Arabia will have to deal with it.

Israel has changed 

Source: CIA

European and US leaders are stressed and at a loss with their Middle East policies since October 7. Their decades’ long appeasement of terror supporting states and groups is backfiring. Giving money to Iran, the Houthis, Hamas etc. has explicitly shown what those entities have done with the money.  At least part of the money went into arming themselves to attack Israel and shipping lanes. Israel is furious about what happened on October 7th and how quickly Western allies turned away from Israel.

As a result Jerusalem is no longer listening to Europe and Washington as it used to. Facing an existential threat (one nuclear bomb or overwhelming massive ballistic attack could destroy the state of Israel),  Israel is likely to go much further than Europe desires.

European leaders of course fear the growing power of political/militant Islamic forces inside their own borders – additionally they also fear a long blockade of the Red Sea with devastating consequences for their already uncompetitive economy and impoverishing citizens. On this track European states will have to print money again to finance huge subsidies and benefits .. ushering a new inflationary wave and higher interest rates.

Headed for wider war?

Although Washington and Brussels demand an immediate cease fire, our independent assessment remains the same since October 7th: The Middle East is seeing a serious war and probably ..


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Other segments discussed in this report:

The risk of escalation is materially higher than 2022

Eyeing the worst case to deny the more likely?

Israel is not Ukraine 

Europe most exposed?

World powers advance at Europe’s expense – Self inflicted ..

Experts say Iran-Israel war to trigger WW3 – True?

No course correction – 2/3 of voters depend on the state  

Israel, isolated but not unprepared 

Watch the markets 

Personal words – Seize the opportunities 

While it is my duty to shed light on these geopolitical realities, I want to finish by reminding you that – contemplating all evidence – I personally don’t see the end of the world at hand, but rather a world at the onset of a difficult transition. One beset with many armed conflicts, some of which may remind people of WW2.

Such a transition poses many unprecedented opportunities. Of the kind that come along only every 50 to 100 years. Those that are aware and flexible will be able to seize them.

Thus, I think it is wise to review the strategic diversification of all of one’s assets. Since more change is coming, that which has served you well the past 50 years may not be what you need in the next ten years.

We said earlier that many experts have said they dread this year 2024. We don’t, we have been looking forward to this complex year, also to serving our readers best we can. I feel God has prepared me since early childhood for a time as this – even through what my parents and grandparents went through.

As usual we will keep testing our hypotheses and conclusions as soon as more data is available.

All the best and may God bless your new year!


By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – Fri 5 Jan 2023. (Public truncated release on 14 Jan 2024)

Research made in Switzerland 

Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly. 

No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation. 

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