Geopolitical Update : “One missile away from annihilation risk” will shape the war, Swiss banks & Brazil
By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist – Sun 5 Nov 2023. (Truncated public release 8 Nov 2023)
Dear reader
The most important thing first: Our geopolitical analysis and outlook has not changed since October 7th, 2023. We promise to release a report only if we change our view or our analysis significantly deviates from consensus.
Therefore this will be a second report focusing more on strategic or practical things people could be doing rather than sharing our “tactical” take on the Hamas-Israel war theatre with you. Most of you have heard my analysis on the Middle East over the years. I will recap for those of you who are rather new to our research:
What is happening in the Middle East now is something we have been expecting. In 2015 we concluded that the Middle East had entered an inexorable destabilisation process – From 2017 onwards – because of the strategic trap the West got itself into – we are expecting this destabilisation to lead in the minimum to 3-4 wars, of which one is very likely to see the deployment of nuclear weapons. Teheran, Damascus but also Tel Aviv could be destroyed. There could be a peaceful time before the final war. The following proprietary slide has been shown by us since 2015 at private meetings with central banks, selected business leaders and Western government officials: Please, look at point number 4.
Very dangerous situation – WW3 possible, but for now not likely
Since the terror attacks on Israel on October 7th regional and world powers on all continents are trying to project their power & influence over the Middle East. Thus, this conflict – even if there is military resolution and a temporary peace, will continue to simmer under the surface. All world powers – old and new ones – are involved and I can say that a majority of them are on the side of Hamas or Palestine. Those powers are translating their regional conflicts and issues to the Middle East as they see their competitors there as well. Yes, interestingly or rather tragically almost all global and regional conflicts are converging over the Holy Land.
At least at this juncture, we don’t think that the current conflict will lead to the use of nuclear weapons. But – given the small size of Israel – should Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Yemen, Iraq etc. step up their missile attacks on Israel, Jerusalem may have no option but to strike Teheran, Iran’s missile bases and possibly Damascus with devastating tactical weapons – possibly nuclear.
There are several military aftermath scenarios for the above including WW3, but it is more likely that the escalation will be contained for reasons I won’t entertain here. Well, it is all a very dangerous big picture anyway, reason why we operate from a Safe Haven in the Alps and have readied two different back up bases in Safe Havens in the Southern hemisphere.
While Israel faces an existential risk – Europe is exposed
While the aftermath of an Israel-Iran war is open, there is near certainty on nuclear contamination that would spread over the European continent and beyond.
Europe as a whole has never fully understood how existential the fear of extermination is for the state of Israel – Most of our leaders believe it’s just about swapping land for peace or a political compromise. Well, we don’t know how it is to live with neighbours whose ultimate goal is our destruction.
We simply cannot understand Israel, but Germany has the moral duty to do try do so. While one nuclear weapon could cause devastating damage to 1/15 to 1/7 of Germany, the same device would exterminate a small country such as Israel. Jerusalem cannot take any chances – it has to strike preemptively and that shapes its defence doctrine. Israel doesn’t have the luxury of waiting.
The problem for Europe is that the Middle East is just one of the multiple fronts on which it is terribly exposed and caught wrong-footed. Worse off, most of EU policies are exacerbating Europe’s vulnerabilities over the next 2-3 years and the geopolitical risks to be dragged into wider conflicts. The demise of geopolitically-naive Europe may pave the way for its resurgence or reconstruction in a more geopolitically-assertive form.
The existential threat to Israel’s existence has been heightened this Fall, but nobody in the West is daring to mention the gravest threat yet. The simmering risk of Iran launching a modified nuclear-tipped Mid Range Ballistic Missile at Israel is not an “if”, but a “when”. All parties involved messed it up and so it is better not to talk about it. Nevertheless this existential threat and the tremendous fear that goes with it will shape the future of the Middle East. It will force Israel to strike hard but also at one point to embrace the hopes of a settlement under international guarantees. The West will push the idea that land, autonomy and statehood for Palestine will guarantee Israel’s security. Once again the West will make commitments that will look good on paper, but are removed from reality – War will follow suit.
Often people ask me what are the main reasons that led me to prepare back-up locations in the Southern hemisphere for the continuity of our research operations and my family. I often say for several reasons, but especially for the reasons that nobody can talk about.
This asymmetric warfare risk and Hamas’ presumed interest to see Israel killing civilians (to isolate Israel internationally and derail the Abraham accords) exposes the civilian population to high risks. Israel is caught between trying to avoid killing Palestinian civilians and Israeli hostages .. and not showing weakness – that is almost impossible.
Still, the popular support for Hamas in Gaza seems to have been strong until recently and makes for an explosive international situation, because the population is unlikely to hand over Hamas terrorists nor cooperate with the IDF. But as the suffering mounts will the civilian population distance itself from Hamas?
What the West didn’t want to see nor deal with – could soon usher a new era for Israel and Europe
The biggest headache for Israel may not be Hezbollah joining the war as our experts say. No, it is the question whether Teheran has already quietly tipped its first modified mid-range nuclear missile with Russian or Chinese or North Korean help. It shifts the calculus.
Most importantly in a Middle East conflict: any show of weakness is lethal and exposes a hesitant party to attacks from all other interested parties.
As long as Israel can take down dozens of missiles at the same time, it is kind of safe, but a massive barrage from all directions bears one major risk – Israel may miss the one missile that is nuclear-tipped? Weakness by Israel to respond to Hamas could trigger a massive concerted attack of missiles from all directions. That is the big risk Western observers miss and that Israeli officials can’t talk openly about .. and Iran has that technical capability since probably last Spring.
Two missiles cannot destroy Russia nor China, but easily destroy Israel especially if many other missiles are launched simultaneously. Furthermore, one or two nuclear missiles could also set Europe in panic or make it a much more forthcoming and cooperative partner. The advantage of this .. is that interestingly enough, no party has currently an interest in talking openly about it. No one. You would only notice a growing necessity by Europe to publicly demonstrate independence and strength versus China’s allies in the Middle East, followed by de facto submission under the surface. Europe is trapped.
Experts in the West have not awakened yet to the real risks we are facing. One day Europe may start understanding ..
This report has been truncated here. If you would like to read the full report or subscribe to our newsletter you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com
Stay safe, stay geopolitically alert. If you have contingency plans, keep advancing them, calmly but decidedly. Do not only diversify your assets in the Southern hemisphere. If possible, ready contingency plans for your family and business there as well. It is better to be prepared and to pray that you won’t have to actually deploy them. As you should know, once a major crisis has struck the best safe havens will probably close their borders to foreigners and non-residents quickly. Probably in a matter of days or weeks.
In one of our next reports we may shed more light on our list of the most geopolitically safe countries in the world. Uruguay currently tops that list.
By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – Sun 5 Nov 2023. (Truncated public release 8 Nov 2023)
Research made in Switzerland
Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.
No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.
info@geopoliticalresearch.com