Geopolitical Interview – The biggest Macro factor, why investors get FED Pivot wrong
FS Insider senior editor Cris Sheridan interviews macro economist Christian Takushi to discuss the biggest Macro Factor affecting world events since 2020 and why Markets are getting the PIVOT wrong. Length 24 minutes
Mr. Sheridan interviewed Mr. Takushi hours before the FED announced its next policy move on Wed 3 May 2023.
Executive Notes:
(1) In Dec 2021 Takushi publicly predicted on a podcast that the FED would be surprising markets with a massive and painful tightening in 2022 (this was also shared in an interview with Cris Sheridan in Jan 2022). The FED has to keep the USD strong vs allies and Emerging Markets for longer than investors are able to grasp – also as Washington’s best weapon to control inflation. The massive Biden fiscal spending forces the hand of the FED.
Takushi remains convinced that markets are still getting the “pivot” wrong, because they are not fully aware of what the Big Picture is. The pivot being the long awaited shift from restrictive monetary policy to loose monetary policy by the FED. Stock investors are betting since the end of 2022 on the FED signalling or beginning to cut interest rates. Many investors and banks are suffering heavy losses, because of this.
(2) Change in priorities for Washington – The threat emanating from the BRICS and heir allied large emerging & developing nations (62% of the world population with a larger economic weight than the West) that are challenging the USD and our Western financial system is so existential for the USA, Washington cannot afford to prioritise investors and US economic growth in 2023. The FED cannot talk about this external factor openly.
(3) While some big investors think Crypto currencies have no future, Takushi disagrees. He sees them shaping the future, but not necessarily as some crypto innovators believe. Crypto and blockchain have actually empowered both (a) the G7 governments to take effective control over aggregate demand & supply including their citizens and (b) the BRICS nations to challenge the USD and the European banking system. Thus, those platforms that choose the right track, are more likely to be able to be part of new monetary system.
Please click here to listen ..
The interview in full length is a courtesy of FinancialSense.com
About this independent research
Macro Economist Takushi strives to give a balanced non-ideological analysis on world affairs. He focuses his research on developments that market consensus is underestimating. www.geopolitical research.com is non-partisan, avoids the use of conspiracy theories and balances Western linear-logical thinking . This balanced research is truly independent and entirely analysis-based. It uses academic research, publicly available information, proprietary methods and databases.
By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. Interview from 3 May 2023 – 4 PM CET (Zurich Time).
Independent Global Geopolitical Macroeconomic Research
Disclaimer: None of our comments should be interpreted or construed as an investment recommendation
Since 2016 among the Top 50 sources of geopolitical research
A distinct and balanced broad approach to geopolitical research
(a) All nations & groups advance their strategic interests with all the means at their disposal
(b) A balance between Western linear-logical and Oriental circular-historical-religious thinking is crucial given the rise of Oriental powers
(c) As a geopolitical analyst with an economic mindset Takushi does research with little regard for political ideology and conspiracy theories
(d) Independent time series data aggregation & propriety risk models
(e) Takushi only releases a report when his analysis deviates from Consensus