Editorial of March 2022: Is a European Super State at hand?

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An unprecedented wave of solidarity is bringing governments and people together in a form not seen on the continent for many decades.

A more united Europe

For years I have spoken at conferences to share my non-consensus forecast that I see an unprecedented convergence of crises forcing European nations to work together .. and eventually the rise of a European Federation. In 2018 I called it the coming European Super State.

I have been scoffed at for saying this during the Euro debt & Greece crisis, while most experts talked about the breakdown of the EU and the end of the Integration Process. I’ve foreseen in my analysis a powerful crisis overlap in this decade overwhelming the current EU, but in turn increasing the political will to build a new structure. This may also flank President Macron’s vision of a European Army. A lack of military deterrent is definitely one of the reasons Europe failed Ukrainians. A terrible crisis may does bring new life to the integration process. This was not a wish, but the outcome of pure analysis.

I don’t mind experts & investors scoffing at my analysis, they did the same when I told them the supply chain will collapse, Free Trade with dictatorships (big error) will erode our security and bring wars back to Europe.

Free Trade with autocratic hegemonic states has been one the gravest strategic errors by the West since WW2. In fact this massive Free Trade has rewarded repressive regimes and made them even more repressive. It is my humble view that restricting Free Trade to nations that share our values (democracy and free market economy) will in the long run reduce the risk of repressive regimes undermining democracy and ruling the world. 

It is my hope that we can start making better strategic assessments. We cannot single out our leaders, experts & investors for the blame, if we consume the exports of repressive regimes that threaten their neighbours. In that sense the free world failed Hong Kong and Ukraine long ago.

Values matter

If we consume & trade along our presumed values and build a strong military, dictatorships will not blossom. There could be a more manageable security balance between East and West, and in my humble view this value-driven (instead of profit-driven) approach would benefit Russia & China as well. There has to be an incentive for those nations to want to adapt. If you give everything away, why should they change and give up absolute power? The recent history of China is a good example for that. To attract Western factories and investments Beijing pretended to open up tentatively. As soon as the critical mass was achieved, and the West became trapped (around 2014), Beijing became even more repressive than before.

Some personal remarks

I am normally used to run objective & unemotional research about economic & geopolitical issues. I normally don’t mix my personal views with my analysis. But in the face of the current tragedy I am adding here “personal remarks”.

It touches my heart to see the suffering of civilians, the outpouring of compassion and solidarity towards the refugees. Something we have not seen on our continent probably since the massive displacements of refugees at the end of WW2.

My appeal: No matter how we may think about the war in Ukraine ( like who started the problem etc.), this human tragedy can bring us together in our desire to help the needy.

I am grateful for the many charity institutions that have quickly begun to work to provide assistance. There are now a large number of organizations we can donate to in order to play our part. We can therefore not only pray for the affected people, we can donate and be part of the answer.

Let’s pray for peace and help.

At Geopolitical Research we help decision makers gain insight into what is underestimated by consensus. Shedding light on these overlooked areas helps decision makers better understand other stakeholders and even so-called enemies. We help reduce the risks of costly miscalculations.