The Battle for South America

While the world is distracted with Iran & Ukraine, the USA advances big in the Western hemisphere

Date: 4 July 2026  (truncated public release on 13 July 2026)

Dear reader

On this 4th of July we release a research report that has been months in the making and we also congratulate Americans around the world for their nation’s 250th anniversary.

For the 1st time since the post-WW2 period voters in key South American economies are simultaneously electing conservative pro-US leaders into power that are bent on restoring law & order. This is unprecedented and will hurt China’s interests, but also Europe’s.

Just as the USA was hours away from celebrating its 250th Independence Day a staunch conservative leader of Japanese descent became President-elect of Peru, sealing an unusual strong pro-US landslide across South America. Peru follows Ecuador, Argentina, Paraguay, Chile. Bolivia and Colombia.

The strategic and defence implications are huge. Business will of course follow. It matters as the global economic “center of gravity” has shifted to the Pacific Rim. The Trump administration weighed in smartly by declaring Peru a Strategic US Ally and that the US will build a modern Naval Base for the Peruvian Navy. Many can offer you a trade deal, very few can offer you regional security. No security, no prosperity.

America is winning 

With much of the world caught unawares and the media’s relentless focus on Europe and the Middle East, both China and the United States of America have been shifting their struggle for global dominance over the past 10 years to Latin America. We begun writing about this in 2018 and also ascertained that the wars in Ukraine and Iran are “managed wars”.

Back in 2023 most of South America was led by left-leaning or Socialist governments (red color). Fast forward to July 2026 most of the continent is led by staunchly conservative US-friendly leaders (blue color). America is winning the battle for South America.

What attracted China and the USA to Latin America? While every resource and asset can be said to be important, few assets are probably as critical as Copper (AI, energy demand, infrastructure etc.), Silver(military industry, security) and safe Maritime Routes in the coming years.

It is out of necessity that the super powers looked South. With 120 conflicts raging across the Northern hemisphere, more wars and the collapse of our traditional Maritime Routes linking Asia to Europe are unavoidable.

Tired of rampant crime – which many South Americans blame on US & European NGOs and their “perceived” obsession with prioritising criminals’ human rights  – voters in Latin America are embracing law & order and regional security.

The winner takes it all 

For the first time since the post-WW2 era all Spanish speaking nations of South America – except for Uruguay – are moving into strategic sync with Washington.

Thanks to Washington’s subtle guidance (under Secretary Rubio) this is probably the first time in 150 years that the strategically located nations of Chile, Argentina and Peru are in a position to trust one another and work together, without the special bond of Argentina & Peru triggering Chilean defence mechanisms. To cement this Washington convinced both Buenos Aires and Lima to embrace the Lockheed Martin’s F-16 platform as their main fighter jet for their airforces. When cash-rich Lima declined to purchase Dassault’s formidable Rafale, it gave up the chance of a military advantage, but it gained on regional stability and supply robustness.

The remarkable thing is Chile operates F-16s. Although there are different technical versions, the dependence on the USA means these nations are embracing regional Peace and Strategic Collaboration under US leadership. Our European leaders have been vastly unaware of these developments.

Not only do these nations have the strategic resources that the US military & industry need – Chile, Peru, Argentina and Colombia control the Pacific Coast, the link between Asia and Latam and the link between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans via Antarctica.

South America has critical resources and probably the safest Maritime Routes to supply China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Canada, Britain and Europe. The ports of Peru, Chile, Argentina and Brazil will gain in importance. The battle for control of South America is raging and – to the frustration of China, Europe and Russia – Washington is greatly advancing its geopolitical and military influence over the region.

In a matter of months Washington has swiftly decapitated the dictatorial regime in Venezuela, brought Cuba to the verge of collapse and sealed the process of steering most of Spanish-speaking South America on the Trump-Rubio camp. While voters may shift left again, remarkable transformations could take place during this unusual convergence.

While this may give more leeway to China on Taiwan, it leaves Europe with a Ukraine stalemate. The longer the conflicts around Ukraine and Iran continue, the more Europe, Russia and China are pinned down and America advances.

Europe sidelined? 

The year started badly for European interests. While European leaders were outraged at the fall of Maduro, millions across Latin America (even many of those who didn’t like Trump’s style) were grateful for the US intervention, but struggled to comprehend how Europe could use international law to shield such an oppressive regime.

Throughout this Spring many leaders around the world and especially across Europe openly cheered as they saw Washington stuck in an Iran war it couldn’t win, but a small growing number of their advisers are waking up to yet another geopolitical-economic shock.

To the dread of Beijing, Berlin, Paris and Brussels .. one key South American nation after the other is prioritising “Law & Order”, and embracing both Free Markets and a stronger cooperation with Washington. We have not seen anything like this in over 55 years.

South America is becoming the anti-thesis to the European Union. This is exactly the main reason thousands of Europeans are moving to South America in recent …

Earthquake tragedy unites the Americas

Perceptions on the left and the right

Economic Boom at hand?

Who benefits the most?

Pax Americana shifting from Europe to Latin America?

For new readers

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Geopolitical Research Team  –  4 July 2026 (truncated public release on 13 July 2026)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Research made in Switzerland 

Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly. 

No part of this report should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation. 

Geopolitical Research Team  – 4 July  2026 (truncated public release on 13 July 2026)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

A personal note from our founder, Christian Takushi:
The great advantage of being an analysis-driven economist, rather than an activist for the left or the right, is that it produces much more accurate predictions and we can pursue indiscriminate and relentless analysis in search for the truth. Not only that, once we have a stable working hypothesis (or explanation) we keep revisiting it. I embrace the duty and freedom to change my assessment should new evidence arise. The primacy of National Security sets boundaries though, security concerns we should all respect. While this may not be today’s predominant reality, it used to be a standard in science and professional analysis. 

Research made in Switzerland 

Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly. 

No part of this report should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation. 

 

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