The calm before the storm  (USA, Europe, China, Russia, & Western hemisphere)

Date: 27 June 19 2026  (Public release on 2 July 2026 truncated)

Dear reader

We have witnessed three months of a rare calm on the geopolitical-strategic front. The second longest such calm since we launched our geopolitical research boutique more some 12 years ago. One that has ended with a US-Iran peace deal (which some may find counterintuitive), the massive shift to the right by South America, the controversial-unorthodox signals on inflation by the new FED chairman and the British Prime Minister’s resignation.

Managed wars 

Many of those who were sucked into the whirlwind of the US-Iran war did not notice the calm, because they didn’t see through what Washington was actually doing.

In our humble view, they made the same mistake as when they fretted about the war in Ukraine and spent hours every week following every twist in a long war of atrition. As we concluded in the Summer of 2022 – “don’t be misled, the convergence of economic & geopolitical forces means no power will have a great interest in ending the war in Ukraine soon and (sadly) there will be more wars”. Both the Ukraine war and the US-Iran war are “managed” wars.

The real action is elsewhere and that Main Theatre is likely to gather pace in the coming months.  A global economic shakeup is simmering and bulit-up pressure will be released. While governments are preparing for a monetary reset, the growing geopolitical struggle between them (they are already waging economic war) will lead to a global political-monetary reset.

America reasserts itself 

The speed at which the United States of America has reasserted its global superpower dominance is breathtaking. Many in Europe have missed it, because of our eurocentric view of world events.

Many in Europe are for instance saying America has totally failed in Iran. Some of our politicians even mocking Washington openly. The fact is America has achieved its (real) goal. It has hurt its top two adversaries: China and Europe. Few in Europe have grasped this though. Even with the newly announced Peace Deal holds, the damage to Europe will be huge and lasting.

Those who have paid attention know that Washington has radically shifted its strategic focus – away from Europe and the Middle East. Yes, America’s new strategic focus has shifted to securing North & South America (ultimately the Homeland) and containing China.

Neither US Foreign Policy nor the US economy or corporate profits of US monopolies for that matter are the top priority of Washington. It is National Security that drives everything else. As America braces for more warfare and potentially an open armed conflict, it is maximising energy & resources independence. America First has been deemed as nationalistic, but in essence it actually is a preparation for war. Those who have been defying America will be hit hard. The current warfare on the technology, commercial and information fronts could easily spread to the military front.

Everything President Trump has done since assuming his 2nd Term is in line with this new security driven strategy.

China and Europe lose influence in Latin America

 To the dread of Beijing and Brussels .. in recent years one key South American nation after the other is shifting to the right and embracing both Free Markets and a stronger cooperation with Washington. We have not seen anything like this in over 55 years.

We have been working on a research report on this subject. It is in the pipeline and will be released separately.

For the 1st time since the post-WW2 period the electoral masses of South America are electing conservative pro-US leaders into power. This is absolutely unprecedented and remarkable.

The simultaneous shift away from Socialism by all key Spanish speaking nations of South America is a huge loss to Europe. Our NGO’s that have long effectively influenced the ideological direction of South America’s press, local parliaments, universities and local courts are in a kind of panic mode.

More certainty than uncertainty

Those who are unaware that the world is already at war were anxious and fearful that the war in Ukraine and the war in Middle East would escalate into a global conflict. So many people wondered why we didn’t comment on the twists of the US-Iran war. Well, neither are we a periodical nor do we release a research report unless there is something new (or we have changed our view).

While open armed conflicts tend to be unpredictable, the macroeconomic reckoning that is at hand along the postponed burst of the giant bubbles of major Western economies is a certainty. Beware that we don’t regard managed wars as open wars. While a wealth transfer is unavoidable, much of today’s inflated wealth will implode back to normalcy.

Because of above it is clear that highly indebted states will welcome a convergence of crises and wars (Perfect Storm) to seize markets, assets and information. That will allow them ample control over asset prices. Capital controls are therefore only a matter of time. Given our 50 years history of handouts, debt culture and entitlement thinking, I predict people in the West will not want to wake up from their money illusion.  

What lies ahead for investors (A Day of Reckoning is coming) 

Since 1974 the advanced economies of the West have been living beyond their means thanks to ever more debt driven by endless money printing and deficit spending. While all eyes were on underreported consumer price inflation the gigantic increase in the money supply was inflating our house prices and stock prices. The latter or course was sold as prosperity. But while some of it is real and thanks to productivity gains, much of it was simply inflated. With all key stakeholders in the same boat, nobody wants to talk about our collective Money Illusion.

Instead of facing the impending normalisation of our inflated assets – i.e. the 40% to 60% collapse in the value of savings, pensions, house values and currencies – most citizens of indebted Western economies are likely to be willing to enter a trade-off .. (discontinued here)

This research report has been truncated here. If you wish to read the full report or subscribe, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com 

Other sections of this report:

A Day of Reckoning is coming for investors

World at war 

Everyone on his own 

Smoke screens 

Confiscations ahead

For new readers

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Geopolitical Research Team  –  27 June 2026
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Research made in Switzerland 

Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly. 

No part of this report should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation. 

 

Geopolitical Research Team  – 27 June 2026  (Public release on 2 July 2026 truncated)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

A personal note from our founder, Christian Takushi:
The great advantage of being an analysis-driven economist, rather than an activist for the left or the right, is that I can pursue indiscriminate and relentless analysis in search for the truth no matter the outcome or conclusion. Not only that, once I have a stable working hypothesis (or explanation) I keep revisiting it. I embrace the duty and freedom to change my assessment should new evidence arise. The primacy of National Security sets boundaries though, we should all respect. While this may not be today’s predominant reality, it used to be at the standard in science and professional analysis. 

Research made in Switzerland 

Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly. 

No part of this report should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation. 

 

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